Bitcoin May Struggle to Reclaim Momentum Through 2025 as OG Whales Sell, Indicating a Structural Shift to TradFi

• OG whale selling continues to cap upside: On-chain data indicate persistent profit-taking among long-term holders, keeping BTC price action range-bound.

• Structural supply shift toward TradFi: Analysts view a transfer of supply from older wallets to new buyers as a durable dynamic, not a one-off move.

• Leverage and momentum show mixed signals: CryptoQuant data reveal leverage easing at times and modest recoveries as sentiment stabilizes.

Description: Bitcoin’s 2025 outlook is shaped by OG whale supply shifts and on-chain dynamics, with a cautious path forward and potential for gradual upside. Stay updated with COINOTAG for independent, data-driven coverage.

What is the Bitcoin price outlook for 2025?

Bitcoin price outlook 2025 remains tethered to the flow of coins from long-time holders to newer market participants. In recent on-chain readings, the market has faced ongoing selling pressure from OG wallets, even after brief bouts of strength above notable resistances. While a few catalysts could puncture the range, the prevailing data point to a measured, rather than explosive, trajectory through 2025.

How does the OG whale transfer impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory?

The transfer of supply from older wallets to newer buyers appears to be structural, not merely profit-taking. Market observers note that traditional finance entities and large family offices may be absorbing supply over time, which could dampen short-term momentum but potentially support a gradual baseline of demand as new holders accumulate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does on-chain data say about OG whale selling in 2025?

On-chain analytics show long-term Bitcoin holders selling in meaningful volumes, with estimates indicating more than 240,000 BTC moved out of idle addresses over a 30-day window. The activity marks the largest wave of profit-taking since early 2025, contributing to price resistance around key levels and a slower pace of gains.

What role do institutions play in the supply shift and BTC momentum?

Analysts point to institutional participants and traditional finance players gradually absorbing supply, potentially shifting the market microstructure. This transfer reduces the dominance of the earlier weak hands and could lead to more measured volatility, as non-commercial traders adapt to the evolving on-chain landscape.

Key Takeaways

• Takeaway 1: OG holders continue to contribute meaningful selling pressure, limiting upside in the near term.
• Takeaway 2: A structural transfer of BTC from OG wallets to TradFi-based buyers is shaping the medium-term outlook.
• Takeaway 3: Leverage and sentiment show episodic improvements, but sustained momentum requires broader demand catalysts.

Conclusion

In sum, the Bitcoin price outlook 2025 is characterized by a measured market re-equilibration driven by on-chain dynamics and a gradual redistribution of supply toward traditional finance participants. While the path may be choppy, the data imply a cautious, low-volatility baseline with potential upside as the transition stabilizes. For ongoing, data-driven coverage, COINOTAG will continue to monitor on-chain signals, institutional flows, and macro catalysts.

Publication date: 2025-10-28 • Last updated: 2025-10-31

Bitcoin estimated leverage ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin has shown a modest rebound but remains within established ranges as on-chain trends and institutional activity unfold. The October data suggest some short-term risk-off sentiment, with leverage recovering gradually as prices stabilize near mid-104k levels. Continued monitoring of Checkonchain data and related on-chain indicators is essential for understanding the evolving dynamic.