Bernstein Reaffirms $150,000 Bitcoin Year-End Target Despite 54% Drawdown

Bitcoin News

Bernstein analysts have reaffirmed a 150,000 dollar year-end price target for Bitcoin (BTC), holding the forecast even after the asset shed roughly 54% from its October 2025 peak near 125,000 dollars. The team led by Gautam Chhugani conceded the call is now “ambitious,” but argued the thesis remains intact. Bitcoin was changing hands around 62,600 dollars on 6 July after dipping under 62,000 dollars on fresh Strategy-related selling concerns before stabilizing in the 63,000 dollar region. The research note frames the pullback as a mid-cycle reset rather than a structural top, keeping the six-figure objective on the table for now.

The core of the bullish case rests on how shallow this correction has been by historical standards. In prior Bitcoin cycles, drawdowns from the peak typically ran between 75% and 90%, deep enough to reset sentiment for a full year. The current 54% decline sits well inside that range, which the analysts read as evidence the market has matured and that dedicated capital is absorbing supply faster than in earlier eras. They cautioned, however, that it is premature to declare the bear market over, noting the downturn is only in its third quarter versus the 12-to-15-month duration typical of past cycles.

Flows tell a more cautious story. Total 2026 inflows into Bitcoin investment products have reached roughly 10 billion dollars, a fraction of the 60 billion dollars recorded across 2025. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — regulated vehicles that hold the asset directly — have bled about 5.5 billion dollars in net outflows this year, weighing heavily on investor psychology. The research argues that redemption pressure, more than any single sell event, explains why price has struggled to find sustained bids while liquidity rotates toward artificial-intelligence equities and other risk assets competing for the same institutional capital.

Corporate treasury demand has partially offset those outflows. Strategy accumulated roughly 175,000 BTC during 2026 at a cost of about 14 billion dollars, lifting its total holdings to 847,363 BTC and cementing its position as the largest corporate holder of the asset. The analysts flagged this steady buying as the primary reason net capital flows stayed positive even as ETF redemptions accelerated. In a market where passive inflows have thinned, treasury accumulation on this scale represents a meaningful structural bid that continues to remove coins from liquid supply and support the longer-term thesis.

Concerns that Strategy could become a forced seller were addressed directly and largely dismissed. According to the research, the company retains enough balance-sheet liquidity to cover dividend obligations and interest payments for more than 17 months, sharply reducing the probability of a distressed liquidation of its Bitcoin stack. The analysts acknowledged that limited, discretionary sales cannot be ruled out, but characterized any such disposals as small relative to total holdings — insufficient to trigger the cascading supply shock that some traders have priced into recent weakness around the 60,000 dollar zone.

The wider setup remains delicate. Bitcoin recently tested lows near 60,000 dollars before recovering toward 63,000 dollars, and the analysts contrasted current conditions with the aggressive expansion phase of 2025. With U.S. miners distributing coins and macro liquidity favoring equities, the report stresses that any renewed leg higher depends on ETF flows turning positive again rather than on treasury buying alone. For now, the desk maintains its 150,000 dollar objective while explicitly labeling it a stretch, a rare public hedge that underscores how much the flow backdrop has deteriorated since the cycle high.

Our reading of the tape aligns with a market in careful accumulation. COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the 63,691 dollar resistance at 77 out of 100, the strongest overhead level, driven by the confluence of a prior-day high and a Fibonacci 0.236 retracement, with the 67,303 dollar band scoring 71 on R3 and SMA 50 alignment. Immediate support at 62,938 dollars scores 73, anchored by the pivot point and Ichimoku Kijun. Derivatives read constructive-neutral: funding sits at a mild 0.0064%, open interest holds near 12.6 billion dollars, and the long/short account ratio of 1.52 shows 60.3% of accounts positioned long. With RSI at 51.8, a bullish MACD, but a 24-out-of-100 Extreme Fear reading, reclaiming 63,691 dollars opens the path toward 65,645 dollars; a decisive loss of 62,938 dollars invalidates the recovery and exposes 60,978 dollars.