Binance Research Sees Tokenized Equities at $349 Billion by 2030 in Bitcoin (BTC) Market

Binance Research Sees $349 Billion by 2030

Tokenized equities, the fastest-growing corner where traditional finance and the crypto market intersect, could expand from $4.43 billion to $349 billion by 2030 under the base scenario set out by Binance Research. Binance chief executive Richard Teng highlighted the figures in a post on X on October 1, 2026, presenting the exchange's research output as evidence of the sector's strong growth through 2026. The study, published under the title The RWA Activation Era, tracks the movement of real-world assets onto public blockchains, and tokenized stocks are the segment it examines most closely. According to the research, tokenized equities carried $4.43 billion in on-chain value as of September 15, an annual increase of 390.4%. That number remains small next to the $151.9 trillion global reference equity market: on-chain penetration stands at just 0.0029%. Bitcoin (BTC) price action continues to anchor sentiment across the broader Bitcoin market where these tokenized products trade. Binance Research did not publish a single forecast. It built three scenarios for 2030: a conservative case of roughly $61 billion, the $349 billion base case, and an optimistic case of $987 billion. Even if the base case lands in full, tokenized shares would still represent only about 0.23% penetration of the reference market, meaning most traditional equity would remain off-chain in 2030 under the report's own arithmetic. That comparison is the report's quiet point: even a booming decade for tokenization leaves the overwhelming majority of global equity off-chain. A tokenized share differs structurally from a conventional ETF: instead of pooling assets into a fund, the structure places a stock, or a right representing economic exposure to one, on a blockchain as a digital token, and the legal rights attached vary by product.

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Trading Volume Up 33-Fold

On-chain usage is growing as quickly as market size. Market size can inflate through new issuance; usage is the harder test. A separate Binance Research study found that the active market capitalization of tokenized equities rose 314% from the start of 2026 through September 9, reaching roughly $4 billion. Monthly trading volume climbed from $237 million in January to $7.9 billion in August, a thirty-three-fold increase. The momentum extended into autumn: a September 29 report from the research team showed tokenized equity transfers surpassed $100 billion in the third quarter, against roughly $6 billion in the first, a jump of more than sixteen times in six months. The niche remains modest next to total crypto turnover, where Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader altcoin complex dominate daily flows. Even so, August's $7.9 billion in monthly turnover already exceeds the entire on-chain value of the market itself, a sign of how fast tokens change hands relative to their size. Rights attached to these instruments are not uniform either: a tokenized share is not automatically a governance token, and the legal claims it grants depend on the issuing structure. The volume figures suggest demand is forming on the trading side before the collateral side matures. Traders weighing which venues support these products can use our standing comparison of the Best Crypto Exchanges. Product expansion across the sector is moving beyond spot wrappers as well: Robinhood is preparing to expand onshore Bitcoin perpetual futures after an initial eight-contract launch in the United States. Whether that velocity turns into sticky collateral demand is the open question for the rest of 2026.

Collateral Demand Is the Real Test

COINOTAG's read is that the $349 billion base case is a scenario, not a market forecast, and the report's own arithmetic says so: even at full delivery, penetration stays near 0.23%. The telling figure is 0.0029%. Moving even a small slice of the $151.9 trillion equity market on-chain would multiply the niche several times over. Getting there depends on regulatory frameworks, custody infrastructure and liquidity depth, and above all on tokenized shares being genuinely used as collateral or liquidity instruments on-chain, the mechanism Bitcoin DeFi has already proven for native assets. Anyone entering the niche should apply DYOR discipline, checking each product's backing, custodian and legal rights before treating a token as the share itself.