Bitcoin Bear Market Enters Late Stage, Analyst Eyes $200K-$250K Rebound

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering the latter stages of its current bear market, with downside momentum showing early signs of slowing, according to a widely followed crypto analyst. The asset has been trading near the $63,000 level, roughly 50% below the October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. Volatility across this cycle has fallen by about 50% versus the previous one, pointing to a milder drawdown than past bear phases. The analyst described the action as a “typical garden-variety” downturn and said the second half of the decline may already be underway, even as trend indicators remain firmly bearish. Coverage of the call sits on our Bitcoin hub.

On momentum, the analyst pointed to an emerging bullish divergence on longer time frames, signalling that negative momentum is decelerating rather than reversing outright. He tied the fourth-quarter weakness not only to tightening global liquidity but also to deteriorating on-chain demand, which historically tracks the business cycle. Looking ahead, he sees Bitcoin reaching between $200,000 and $250,000 within two to three years, while staying cautious on more aggressive scenarios. His internal models place a $1 million Bitcoin closer to 2032 or 2033, contingent on the scale of monetary expansion between now and then, rather than the 2030 timeline pitched by some executives.

Separately, a major bank's head of digital assets research reaffirmed a long-standing forecast that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before the end of the current U.S. presidential term. The call stands even as BTC trades above $64,000, roughly 49% beneath its $126,198 record set in October 2025. The researcher previously projected $100,000 by the end of 2026 and $500,000 by 2030, framing institutional inflows and sovereign accumulation as the primary drivers. The forecast has drawn fresh scrutiny after the bank's earlier $200,000 target for 2025 went unmet during last year's sharp fourth-quarter reversal.

The renewed attention follows President Trump's public endorsement of Bitcoin at a White House event on July 6, where he framed the asset in national-security terms. Trump characterised Bitcoin as a geopolitical instrument rather than a simple investment, warning that “if we don't have it, China will.” The remarks position digital assets within a broader strategic contest, contrasting Washington's more accommodative posture with Beijing's post-2021 crackdown on trading and mining and its push toward a central-bank digital currency. Observers read the comments as signalling policy direction that could accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional participation.

The gap between a $500,000 target and current pricing remains the obvious tension, and the more relevant question is what keeps the thesis credible. Proponents cite three structural pillars: expanding spot ETF access for institutions, the prospect of nation-state adoption, and Bitcoin's fixed 21-million supply cap that underpins its scarcity narrative. Clearing the intermediate $100,000 to $200,000 band would serve as the first real validation of that long-term case. The same bank has also projected growth in stablecoins alongside Bitcoin, reinforcing a view that regulated crypto infrastructure is expanding rather than contracting.

Not every forecaster shares the optimism. Some analysts caution that while Bitcoin could eventually settle in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, the path there may involve further downside or an extended consolidation before any decisive move higher. That view aligns with current trend readings, which remain bearish despite early signs that selling pressure is easing. Bitcoin has still outperformed much of the broader altcoin market through the drawdown, holding dominance near multi-year highs. The debate ultimately hinges on whether political will, institutional capital and structural adoption converge in practice — a combination that has yet to be tested at scale.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $63,906 support at a maximum 100/100, driven by the confluence of the 0.114 Fibonacci retracement, a high-volume node and the Bollinger Band midline, while $66,695 stands as the key overhead resistance at 94/100 from the R3 pivot, Keltner upper band and a support-to-resistance flip. With spot near $64,255 as of the latest reading, derivatives data shows a modest 0.0067% funding rate and $12.6 billion in open interest, and a 1.41 long/short ratio (58.4% long) leans cautiously bullish. Our reading: an RSI of 54 and a bullish MACD favour buyers, but a Fear & Greed print of 26 and any break below $63,906 would invalidate the recovery thesis.