Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Says Samson Mow as ATH Hit 37 Days Before Halving

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) has already carved out the bottom of this bear cycle, according to JAN3 chief executive Samson Mow, who argues the asset is now mispriced by anyone still waiting for a lower low. Mow, the long-time advocate behind El Salvador’s adoption push and a vocal proponent of a $1 million long-term target, posted on X over the weekend that investors clinging to the familiar four-year rhythm risk missing the turn. His core claim is blunt: the cycle has compressed, the capitulation is behind the market, and the bottom is in. The remark landed while spot prices hovered just above $60,000, deep inside bear market territory for Bitcoin.

Mow’s reasoning rests on a single timing observation. He notes that Bitcoin printed its prior all-time high roughly 37 days before the April 2024 halving, rather than in the months that followed it as earlier cycles suggested. To Mow, that inversion is proof the schedule itself has shifted forward. Even traders who treat the halving as gospel, he contends, should accept that the cadence has accelerated and recalibrate their expectations accordingly. The implication is that the deepest drawdown may have already occurred, and that models pointing to a capitulation still four months away are anchored to a pattern that no longer governs price.

The acceleration thesis is not unique to Mow. Since United States regulators approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, institutional capital has entered the market far earlier and in larger size than in prior cycles, leading several observers to question whether the halving-driven four-year template still holds. That early demand, the argument runs, front-loaded the cycle and disrupted the historical sequencing of peaks and troughs. A competing camp counters that there is simply not enough post-ETF data to declare the old framework dead, and that one altered cycle does not yet constitute a structural break in how Bitcoin behaves across halvings.

Technical signals are adding to the debate rather than settling it. Some market analysts point to Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average closing in on its 100-week counterpart, a configuration that would form a so-called death cross, or bear cross, if the shorter average slips beneath the longer one. On its face the pattern reads as a bearish confirmation. Yet historically the same signal has tended to appear near genuine market bottoms rather than ahead of fresh declines, which leads parts of the analyst community to treat an imminent death cross as a contrarian buy indicator. The reading suggests any remaining downside could be limited even if the cross prints.

Not everyone is convinced the floor is set. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen expects Bitcoin to bottom nearer $55,000, with the trough most likely arriving between August and October of this year rather than now. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish still, warning that Bitcoin could probe roughly $40,000 within the next six months before the bear phase fully completes. The spread between Mow’s “bottom is in” call and these lower targets underscores how wide the disagreement has become, with credible voices separated by tens of thousands of dollars on where this cycle’s true low sits.

A further cautionary case centers on on-chain valuation. One widely cited view holds that Bitcoin is testing its 200-week moving average as critical support, with the $50,000 to $54,000 band flagged as the next decisive battleground between buyers and sellers. The same analysis points to realized price, the aggregate cost basis of all coins, as the historical marker of cycle bottoms: since 2011, every major bear market has eventually pushed Bitcoin below realized price before a durable low formed. Because that threshold has not yet been breached this cycle, the bears argue a final flush lower cannot be ruled out.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates immediate resistance at $61,031 a strong 80/100, built on the confluence of a Fibonacci 0.114 retracement, a high-volume node and the R2 pivot, while the $58,902 support also scores 80/100, anchored by the previous-day low and a bullish engulfing structure. With spot at $60,092 (24h change +0.19%), price sits pinned between two equally weighted levels. Derivatives data shows a marginally positive 0.0008% funding rate, $11.8 billion in open interest and a 2.20 long/short ratio (68.8% long), signaling crowded long positioning that is vulnerable to a squeeze. With RSI at 33.96, a bearish MACD and a Fear & Greed reading of 12 (Extreme Fear), a daily close below $58,902 would invalidate the bottom thesis and open the $51,387 region.