Bitcoin Breaks $60K as ETFs Bleed $5.4B, CPI Print Sparks Rebound to $61,783

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin slipped beneath $60,000 to set a fresh cycle low this week, reviving debate over whether the dip marks a genuine buying opportunity. Research from Grayscale, drawing on a weighted composite of on-chain valuation models including NUPL and price-to-CVDD, places Bitcoin in undervalued territory relative to its long-run average. Yet the discount remains shallower than the extremes seen after the FTX collapse. Adding caution, Fidelity Digital Assets flagged that Bitcoin has held a 200-day death cross and briefly traded under its 200-week moving average — a configuration historically tied to forced liquidations. Analysts warn the structural capitulation risk has not fully cleared.

Institutional flows have turned decisively negative. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $77.4 million in net redemptions on Tuesday, a third consecutive day of outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs shed $40.9 million the same session. Over the trailing four weeks, roughly $5.4 billion has exited spot Bitcoin products — among the largest withdrawal phases since the funds launched. Analysts frame the move as a sentiment shock rather than a structural breakdown, noting the broader market remains range-bound for the year. Compounding the pressure: Middle East tension around the Strait of Hormuz, firmer US jobs data, and an AI-investment frenzy siphoning liquidity away from digital assets.

A striking divergence has emerged on-chain: transaction activity is climbing toward record highs even as price falls. The 30-day average count of blockchain transactions reached roughly 640,000, approaching the 666,000 peak recorded during the 2024 correction, despite prices dropping nearly 19% on the week. Analysts read the pattern as capitulation rather than euphoria — a large-scale change of hands as exhausted holders sell into fresh demand. On-chain data shows more than 60,200 BTC moved to exchanges in the 24 hours after Bitcoin broke $60,000, with over 59,000 of those coins transferred at a loss, the heaviest short-term realized losses since February.

Derivatives positioning has cooled sharply as bear-market conditions deepen. A widely tracked leverage-pressure gauge has shifted from extreme to moderate and weak territory after the recent slide triggered a wave of forced liquidations, signaling that aggressive speculative bets have thinned. The deleveraging is not yet at the historic extremes that have marked low-risk accumulation zones, and reaching them could take weeks. Meanwhile, mid-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have fallen back underwater, needing a reclaim of $64,000 to return to profit. Historically, this cohort approaching breakeven has preceded short Bitcoin rallies, making the level a key near-term pivot.

Beneath the gloom, deep-pocketed buyers are leaning in. Coinbase's institutional desk reports that family offices, sovereign wealth funds and government investment arms across the Middle East are treating the drop toward $60,000 as a discount entry, with spot ETF exposure still exceeding $750 billion. Not every corner fared well: identity project Humanity Protocol saw roughly $32 million drained as its H token crashed 90% on decentralized exchanges after a foundation member's private key was compromised, with on-chain sleuths flagging a possible staged exploit. In Japan, SBI Shinsei Bank launched a pilot paying 20% of deposit interest in Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.

The May inflation print offered fleeting relief. US CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, matching consensus, while core CPI climbed just 0.2% — below the 0.3% expected — easing fears of re-accelerating underlying inflation. Bitcoin, which had been pushed under $61,000 ahead of the data, rebounded to as high as $61,783 immediately after, though it stayed modestly lower on the day. Energy drove the headline, with prices up 3.9% on the month amid Middle East tensions. The softer core reading trims, but does not erase, the case for the Federal Reserve staying higher for longer.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $61,746 resistance at 76/100, driven by the confluence of a Doji print, the prior daily close and a fresh MACD cross, with the $64,156 cap scored 68/100 on ATR Upper and point-of-control volume. On the downside, the engine grades the $59,158 support a robust 79/100, anchored by ATR Lower, a swing low and the Donchian floor. Derivatives data shows a near-flat 0.0023% funding rate, $11.7 billion in open interest and a 2.10 long/short ratio (67.8% long) — crowded longs into an RSI of 24 and an Extreme Fear reading of 9/100. A daily close back above $64,156 would revive bulls; losing $59,158 invalidates the basing thesis and opens $52,679.