Bitcoin (BTC) Targets $190,000 if Two-Year Rising Channel Breaks, Says Analyst Ali Martinez

Martinez Maps a $190,000 Bitcoin Target

Analyst Ali Martinez argues that the Bitcoin (BTC) price sits one decisive breakout away from a $190,000 cycle target, provided the asset clears the upper boundary of a rising channel that has framed its market for the past two years. Martinez mapped the structure in a chart posted on X, and his reading is specific: the channel's first major test was the previous all-time high above $126,000, the record zone price already probed from within the pattern's lower half. “A decisive break above it could put the channel’s upper boundary near $190,000 in focus as a potential cycle target,” he wrote. A rising channel, in this construction, is a pair of parallel upward-sloping trendlines that has contained both pullbacks and rallies since 2024, so a confirmed break above the upper line would mark a regime change rather than an ordinary swing high. The projection carries no deadline. Martinez frames the $190,000 mark as an objective for the next bull run, which leaves the timing open even though the level itself is fixed. The call lands as sentiment improves on two fronts: the market's recovery over recent months, and the arrival of October, a month with a historically strong record for the sector. That combination has fueled expectations among analysts that the worst of the bear cycle has passed and that a fresh major rally could form near term. COINOTAG's Bitcoin tag hub follows the asset's cycle coverage as this setup develops. The structure of the trade is simple to state: price must first reclaim and hold the record zone above $126,000, and only then does the channel's projected boundary near $190,000 come into play as the cycle's next measured objective. Until that break confirms, the figure stays conditional.

@alicharts · X post

Chart posted on X.

View on X

41,000 Coins Accumulated, $2.4 Billion ETF Week

Two datapoints back the projection. On-chain data shows accumulation by large holders, the cohort often described as crypto whales: wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) added more than 41,000 coins in roughly 10 days, buying that reads as a long-term HODL position rather than short-term trading inventory. Institutional demand tells a similar story. Spot crypto ETFs have attracted more than $57.6 billion in cumulative net inflows to date, and nearly $2.4 billion of that arrived last week alone, the strongest business week for these products since October 2025. Spot ETFs hold the asset directly, so their net creations translate into bought and withdrawn coins rather than derivative exposure, which is why Martinez treats the flows as evidence that real demand is being absorbed at current levels. He does, however, attach one explicit condition to the bullish scenario. The upcoming midterm elections in the United States may complicate it: he has previously reminded followers that voting years 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 each preceded major corrections, so whether history repeats is an unresolved question rather than a dismissed one. The same analytical method extends beyond the flagship asset. In a follow-up post, Martinez reads Ethereum (ETH) on a monthly chart, where a channel stretches back more than five years and the upper boundary near $5,000 is the level to watch; a break there projects toward $8,800, and our Ethereum tag hub tracks that asset's own cycle coverage. For Bitcoin (BTC), the load-bearing levels stay unchanged: the $126,000 record as the breakout trigger and $190,000 as the channel's measured objective.

@alicharts · X post

Follow-up post.

View on X

Measured Against the $126,000 Record

For COINOTAG, the size of the $190,000 claim is best judged against the level it starts from. The primary record here is Martinez's own published chart and accompanying post, which state that the channel has held for two years and that its first test was the $126,000 all-time high. Measured against that record, the target presumes a breakout the market has not yet delivered, and the election caveat, drawn from the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 voting cycles, is the stated risk to the path. Long-term valuation bands such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide offer a second frame for judging whether the level fits the cycle, and readers tracking positioning can follow our open interest coverage. Until the record zone breaks, the target remains conditional.