Bitcoin (BTC) Correction Nears End With $57K Target

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the late stage of its corrective phase, according to technical analysis published Aug. 1 by on-chain analyst Darkfost, who argued that the market is still trapped inside a daily downtrend but is beginning to show early signs of exhaustion. The analyst noted that Bitcoin remains below both the 21-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, turning those levels into near-term resistance. The 200-day exponential moving average sits around $72,930, far above current price action, and a future crossover in which the 21-day average moves above that long-term line would be treated as the first confirmation of trend repair. In the analyst's reading, momentum has not yet flipped bullish: the relative strength index has repeatedly failed to hold above the 50 midpoint, showing that sellers still retain some control. Even so, bullish divergence signals on daily and weekly charts suggest that downward pressure is weakening, while the indicator appears to be entering a reset phase that could support a medium-term recovery. The analysis framed the current structure within an Elliott wave C move, projecting a possible short-term rebound toward $68,000 before one final decline completes the pattern. That terminal zone was placed between $54,000 and $57,000, although a stronger fourth-wave rebound above $68,000 could push the eventual low higher. The overall message was that the bear market pressure may need several more weeks to resolve, but the technical setup is increasingly consistent with a late-cycle flush rather than the start of a new extended downtrend. For readers tracking Bitcoin, the key trigger is not the first bounce, but whether price can later reclaim the moving-average cluster and hold it as support. Such a reclaim would need to occur on improving volume and would likely require the 21-day average to flatten, because a single relief rally inside a descending channel does not by itself establish a durable trend change.

Strategy, the corporate treasury firm associated with Michael Saylor, posted an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss, equal to $24.45 per share, reversing a $10.02 billion profit from the same period a year earlier. The company's filing showed that the result was driven by weaker Bitcoin prices and softer market sentiment, while management also disclosed that it disposed of approximately 3,600 BTC from late June through early July, generating about $216 million and crystallizing an estimated $55 million loss. The sale drew attention because Strategy has long been viewed as a permanent corporate holder, yet the filing indicated that its average acquisition cost remains above prevailing market value across the 843,775 BTC it held. That gap has become a central pressure point: with BTC recently changing hands near $63,000 to $65,000, the company's approximate $75,500 average purchase price sits about 15% to 17% above spot, turning that level into a psychological ceiling for the broader market. The filing also included a full valuation allowance against deferred tax assets and highlighted preferred stock dividends effectively funded by treasury operations, a structure that has attracted criticism from market observers. Traders are now weighing whether the combination of paper losses, treasury financing costs, and cautious institutional sentiment could create an overhang during the third quarter. The near-term technical map places the high-$50,000 to low-$60,000 region as an important support band, partly because that is where part of the company's selling occurred. A base-case range of $60,000 to $67,000 would keep the cost-basis overhang in place, limiting upside while preventing a forced-supply narrative from dominating positioning. A sustained break below $60,000 could pressure leveraged holders and revive concerns about large corporate supply, while a hold above $63,000 could open a slower recovery toward $69,000 to $71,000. The market's ability to absorb such supply without losing momentum remains the key test for all-time-high recovery hopes across Bitcoin and major altcoin markets.

Adding to the bearish backdrop, spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed three consecutive weeks of net inflows, recording $61.5 million in outflows last week, with a single Friday session shedding more than $265 million and erasing the prior day's $233 million gain. The shift coincided with the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates unchanged, after which Bitcoin fell roughly $3,000 over the following days, consistent with a historical pattern of post-FOMC weakness regardless of the policy outcome. Geopolitical risk also weighed on sentiment, as reports of Iranian activity targeting oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and potential U.S. retaliatory strikes pushed investors away from high-beta assets. Analyst Ali Martinez flagged a TD Sequential sell signal on the three-day chart, though Michael van de Poppe countered that an 18% weekly surge in South Korea's KOSPI has previously preceded Bitcoin rallies toward $83,000.

Bitbanker financial analyst Andrey Poroshin, whose exchange operates across Russia, the UAE, and Kyrgyzstan, published an August outlook projecting that Bitcoin will retest the $60,000 to $62,000 zone before recovering toward $70,000—a level he noted still sits below the average U.S. mining cost, a threshold that has already prompted some operators to pivot toward AI data center businesses. Poroshin identified the gradual wind-down of BitMEX as a potential reversal catalyst, arguing that the exit of leveraged weak holders from that platform typically coincides with short-term selling pressure easing and reversal zones forming. He further downplayed the CLARITY Act's near-term market impact, expecting any August legislative progress to produce limited volatility given prevailing uncertainty, while flagging September as a higher-volatility window driven by the next Federal Reserve rate decision and potential developments around the bill.

(as of 14:11 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine shows spot Bitcoin (BTC) at $63,092 sitting just above the $62,830 support, rated 81/100 by S1, Donchian Lower, ATR Lower, and BB Lower, while the $63,161 resistance scores 80/100 from Fibo 0.214, R1, and MACD Cross. Above that, $66,970 carries 75/100 from Donchian Upper, Swing High, EMA 100, and Keltner Upper. Below, $61,044 support scores 66/100 from Keltner Lower, Fibo 0.114, HVN, and Supertrend. Derivatives positioning is tilted long: open interest totals $12.69 billion, funding is mild at 0.0031%, and accounts are 66.3% long, a 1.97 long-short ratio. With Fear and Greed at 27 and MACD bearish within a broader downtrend, a hold above $62,830 and break above $63,161 favors stabilisation; a daily close below $61,044 invalidates toward $57,800.