Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Difficulty Falls 19.9% From Peak

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty has declined 19.9% from its peak, the third-deepest withdrawal since ASIC mining became the dominant production model, while the broader network hashrate decline has persisted for roughly 287 days. Network data reviewed by COINOTAG show this is not a one-block recalibration, but one of the longest sustained miner-capitulation stretches in the chain’s history. Hashprice pressure, the revenue earned per unit of computing power, remains central to the stress: miner daily income has contracted 39.5% year over year to about $28.5 million, while fees account for only about $200,000 of that total, leaving the shrinking block subsidy as the main source of income. Revenue per unit of computing power has slipped to roughly $30.6 per PH/s per day, close to multi-year lows. More than 60.8% of circulating supply has not moved for over a year, indicating that long-term holders remain structurally intact even as weaker miners exit. The weakness arrives while the asset itself is down about 46% over the past year, creating a rare divergence in which some listed mining equities have still climbed more than 430% by reallocating power and capital toward AI and high-performance computing. On-chain cycle indicators are also flashing historically rare signals. A composite miner-pressure gauge built from the Puell Multiple and an inverse capitulation measure has fallen to a 2026 low and moved deep into the zone previously associated with undervalued conditions. Similar synchronized declines appeared near major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. The gauge’s only prior touch of 0.00 came during the 2015 miner capitulation, when the price fell from about $300 to $160 in less than a week. That history does not guarantee a floor, but it places the current Bitcoin network stress among the most extreme readings recorded to date. The combination of falling difficulty, thin fee revenue and persistent long-term supply has historically marked late-stage capitulation rather than early weakness.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is moving to reassure investors after disclosing a fresh round of balance-sheet management. Company disclosures on Monday show the firm sold 1,638 BTC for roughly $104.7 million and repurchased 912,143 shares of its preferred stock STRC for $81.2 million. Chief Executive Phong Le framed the sale as routine capital rotation rather than a change of conviction, saying the company has been through similar conditions before and will continue to manage its structure actively. “We, as a company, went through this in 2022,” Le said, adding that Strategy sells Bitcoin when needed and rotates back into the asset as conditions require. The remarks come as Strategy navigates a difficult tape for crypto treasuries: its stock is down nearly 40% year to date and has fallen almost 80% from the November 2024 all-time high near $474. The company reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter loss for 2026 and has not added to its position for six weeks, after a long stretch of aggressive weekly purchases. Despite that pause, Strategy still controls 842,138 coins, keeping it far ahead of every other public corporate holder; the disclosure valued the position at about $53.8 billion. The company began accumulating Bitcoin in August 2020 as an inflation hedge and return-enhancing treasury move, offering shareholders amplified exposure without requiring direct custody. Le dismissed the idea that selling a small portion of the treasury changes the company’s role, comparing Strategy to the “J.P. Morgan of the crypto economy” and arguing that the relevant question is whether it continues to add Bitcoin per share and create shareholder value. He also said the current paper loss is less important than the company’s expected performance in the next market recovery, adding that Strategy will “get through this bear market.” The message is aimed at investors worried that a prolonged drawdown could force treasury companies to become sellers of last resort.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates Bitcoin’s $63,712 support at 81/100, anchored by a high-volume node, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, the 50-day SMA and a pivot point, while the deeper $61,898 floor scores 89/100 from Ichimoku cloud support and the point of control. Above spot near $64,318, the $64,359 resistance scores 56/100 and $66,878 scores 78/100, based on the 20-day SMA, Ichimoku Kijun, Keltner upper and low-volume node. Funding is mildly positive at 0.0045%, open interest stands at $12.95 billion, and the long/short ratio is 1.40, but a 25/100 Extreme Fear reading limits conviction. Reclaiming $64,359 favors $65,611; losing $63,712 invalidates the bullish setup.