CryptoQuant: Bitcoin (BTC) Power Law Model Shows Room to $157,800

Power Law Oscillator Reads +34.5

Bitcoin (BTC) still has ground to cover before its long-term valuation model flashes overheated, according to a power law reading published by analytics firm CryptoQuant on October 4. The Bitcoin price stood at $85,000 when the analysis was compiled, above the trendline the model fits to the asset's entire trading history, yet far short of the excursion that marked earlier cycle peaks. CryptoQuant measures that distance as an oscillator, a single number tracking how far spot sits from the fitted line: values above zero place spot above the long-term trendline, values below zero place it under it, and the larger the number, the further price has stretched from that orbit. On Sunday the reading was +34.5, taken at 13:12 UTC. In every prior bull market the oscillator pushed above +100 before the top printed, and under the current regression parameters a +100 reading corresponds to roughly $157,800, more than 80% above where the market trades now. Spot would need to reach that level before the threshold is met under today's parameters. The gauge is relative, not a percentage premium: +34.5 does not mean Bitcoin (BTC) sits 34.5% above the trendline, and +100 has never been a mechanical top signal in any of the model's historical reads. The fitted orbit traces the asset back to its 2009 debut as a Proof of Work network, so the benchmark compounds more than fifteen years of trading data, and each new month of prices nudges the fit. Four-year cycle frameworks usually anchor bull phases to the most recent Bitcoin halving, though the power law model itself uses no such anchor. By the model's own history, +34.5 sits in a modest band for the Bitcoin market, which is the basis of the firm's argument that conditions are not yet overheated.

The oscillator behaves as a position marker, and the firm is explicit about its limits. A +100 reading does not prove a peak has been reached; it only says the market's distance from trend matches the distance recorded at previous peaks under today's parameters. The $157,800 figure attached to that level is a reference, not a target. It is computed from the model's current regression parameters, and those do not stand still: as the fitted line drifts upward through time, the price that maps to +100 rises with it, and the oscillator value at any given spot level shifts too. A buyer who waited for $157,800 would not necessarily find the oscillator at +100 on arrival. The model's second message concerns amplitude. The peak oscillator reading has fallen from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, and the standard deviation of daily oscillator changes has dropped from 4.81 points to 2.47 points, a decline of about 49%. On that reading, excursions above and below trend are shrinking and day-to-day deviations are quieter, a picture of a market that is maturing rather than one building toward a blow-off. Market-structure evidence points the same way: listed miners have cut 75 EH/s of hash rate this cycle, a $1.5B retreat from the network, while long-term holders who HODL through full cycles keep a larger share of float off the market. Regional pricing compresses along with it, with the kimchi premium holding at 0.61% across Korea's four major exchanges in recent sessions. None of this fixes a direction; it describes a market whose deviations from trend are smaller than they once were.

Where the Reading Stays Open

COINOTAG's own read: the +34.5 oscillator and the $157,800 reference are coordinates from one model, not a forecast, and the analysis draws no line in the sand. Nothing in the published parameters states what would invalidate the reading; the regression line drifts upward as data accumulate, so the price that maps to +100 will move with it. Band-based frameworks, from the halving-anchored cycle charts to the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, share that property: the reference moves as the base data extend. Readers following the setup can track the trendline level on our Bitcoin technical analysis page, where the current fit updates against live price data.