Bitcoin (BTC) Pulls Back to $77K After Rejection at $81K

Bitcoin Fails at $81K

Bitcoin (BTC) is nursing a pullback toward $77,300 after sellers rejected its latest attempt to break out of the $80,000–$81,000 band, leaving a series of lower highs beneath the recent peak above $81,000. The retreat is plainly visible on the BTC daily chart, and it comes against a stiffening macro backdrop: bond yields and oil prices have firmed in the run-up to the next U.S. inflation release and the Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for next week, trimming risk appetite across digital assets. Even so, the damage so far is limited. The daily relative strength index has cooled to roughly 55.5 after an extended stretch in overbought territory and has slipped beneath its signal average near 66 — confirmation that the momentum engine behind August's advance has stalled, not that the trend itself has reversed. Crucially, the major moving averages still sit far below spot, meaning the breakout structure built during August's climb remains technically intact despite the recent selling. That pattern of descending peaks has raised short-term correction pressure, but it has not yet broken the larger setup. For readers newer to the asset, our What Is Bitcoin (BTC) guide covers the fundamentals behind the largest proof-of-work network by market value. The immediate question for traders is whether this dip is a routine pause within a functioning uptrend or the opening leg of a deeper retracement. With macro catalysts stacked into next week — the inflation print, then the Fed — volatility around the $76,000–$77,000 decision zone is likely to intensify before direction resolves.

Key Levels: $76K Floor vs $79K Hurdle

The level map is straightforward. First support lies in the $76,000–$77,000 zone, with the nearest dynamic support printed at $75,967; the truly significant moving averages cluster well beneath, near $72,863, $70,675 and $70,417. As long as price respects the upper shelf, August's breakout stays valid — and conviction among long-term holders, the cohort most inclined to HODL through drawdowns, has so far kept that shelf from failing. A daily close below $76,000–$77,000 would change the calculus, exposing the sturdier dynamic support at $72,800–$73,000 where stronger trend-following demand sits. On the flip side, the bulls' first task is to reclaim $79,000; a sustained push through that hurdle would reopen the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone that capped the previous advance. Context matters here. The post-halving cycle has historically rewarded patience during exactly this kind of consolidation, and some prominent voices remain outright bullish on Bitcoin price analysis — Arthur Hayes argues a yen carry unwind could still carry the asset to new highs by year-end, a counterweight to the near-term caution the charts are flashing. The wider altcoin market is testing parallel support zones, but Bitcoin's shelf remains the one that sets the tone. What would flip the picture near term is simple: acceptance below $76,000 would confirm that the descending-peak sequence from $81,000 is turning into something more serious, making $72,800–$73,000 the market's next referendum. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

COINOTAG Composite: 82/100 Support in Play

The macro pressure behind the pullback has sharpened. Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel and WTI topped $100, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield past 4.9% — its highest since 2023 — while August PPI rose 0.4% month over month, the steepest gain since May. Swap markets now price roughly a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, with an additional move by October nearly fully priced. RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas warned that elevated producer prices and Christine Lagarde's hawkish remarks point to a potential global central bank tightening cycle, an environment unfavorable to risk assets near term. Geopolitics is compounding the squeeze: U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have lifted oil and natural gas, and ING's Warren Patterson sees scope for further gains if crude shipments are disrupted. Meanwhile, yen strength near 153 per dollar has revived unwinding fears around carry trades, and the S&P 500 has fallen four straight sessions.

Adding a fresh on-chain wrinkle to the supply picture, CryptoQuant data shows Binance's Bitcoin (BTC) balance reached 691,658 BTC on September 2 — its highest level since November 2024 and roughly 30% of all BTC held across major exchanges. The tally has grown by about 77,000 coins from around 616,000 in late April, a build-up attributed to investors moving coins onto exchanges to take profit or hedge as price climbed from the $60,000s toward $80,000. Such inflows can signal readily sellable supply and potential downward pressure if unwound during weakness. Caveats apply, though: wallet reclassifications and internal reshuffling can skew the metric, and a portion of the increase reflects Binance's conversion of $1 billion in SAFU reserves into bitcoin, including a 15,000 BTC purchase earlier this year — holdings distinct from user profit-taking deposits.

(as of 08:59 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the battleground precisely: the $77,081 support is the strongest level on the board at 98/100, driven by a fresh resistance-to-support flip, the pivot point, Fibo 0.214 and EMA 20, while the $79,385 resistance carries an 80/100 rating on the confluence of R2, the Ichimoku Tenkan, Fibo 0.114 and the ATR upper band. Spot trades at $77,364.94, down 0.95% in 24 hours, with RSI at 55.46 and a bearish MACD signal inside a broader uptrend. Derivatives positioning is constructive — funding at 0.0036%, open interest near $15.47 billion and 61.8% of accounts long (1.62 ratio) — while the Fear & Greed Index reads 56 (Greed). Bulls must hold the 81/100 shelf at $73,704; a daily close above $77,934 (72/100) targets $80,953, while losing $75,546 opens a retest of the primary support.