Bitcoin (BTC) Pulls Back From $87,000 in Fourth Breakout Attempt Since September

Fourth Attempt at the Yearly Open

Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week on its strongest footing since January, sealing a weekly close of $86,532 on Bitstamp, the highest since late January, and momentum carried into Monday with wicks to $87,000 on some exchanges. The push was the fourth attempt at the top of the range since Sept. 21, and it again stopped short of the line that matters most: the 2026 yearly open at $87,570, a level that has capped every rally this year. The Bitcoin (BTC) price now trades near $86,000, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours and only marginally below where it stood an hour ago, so the retreat from the weekly high remains shallow. Order-flow data shows liquidations of nearby short positions around $85,500 on lower time frames, while thickening walls of bids and asks around spot kept volatility constricted; a three-day liquidation heatmap places further clusters at $83,700 and at the yearly open itself. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in his latest X analysis, describing the asset as “sandwiched” between key support at $82,500 and resistance near $86,700. In that reading, holding $82,500 is what keeps Bitcoin (BTC) out of the former $60,000–$80,000 range from earlier in 2026, while a decisive break above $86,700 would open a higher band with $93,700 as its ceiling. Clearing the yearly open would also flip the 2026 candle green for the first time, a marker many desks watch. The failed fourth attempt echoes a recurring breakout-failure pattern our desk flagged in recent rebound attempts, and across the broader Bitcoin market the question now is whether resistance finally gives way.

@rektcapital · X post

Wrote in his latest X analysis.

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Treasury Yields Near 24-Year Highs Frame the Week

Macro conditions, rather than crypto-specific flows, set the tone into midweek. Last week the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.34% and 5.69% respectively, their highest levels since 2002, and the 10-year stood at 5.25% on Monday after rebounding from a dip that followed soft nonfarm payrolls data. Macro commentary account The Kobeissi Letter put the bond market at the center of the week in an X post on Sunday, pointing to upcoming supply and the Fed calendar. The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September FOMC meeting on Wednesday, a session in which officials voted to lift the benchmark rate by 0.25%. Rate expectations have whipsawed since: CME's FedWatch tool priced the odds of another 0.25% hike at the October meeting at 70% a week ago before they slid to 18%, though consensus still leans toward a December increase. August PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, printed lower than expected but changed little, with methodological changes likely explaining part of the drop; the next major inflation read is CPI on Oct. 14. Girard Advisory Services chief investment officer Timothy Chubb argued the Fed will keep rates higher for longer while inflation stays sticky and oil prices swing on the Middle East conflict.

Against that backdrop, October has opened unusually well for the largest Proof of Work asset. On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant show the month's first three days, historically its weakest stretch at an average decline of 0.66%, produced a 1.4% gain in 2026, lifting month-to-date upside to 2.7%. CoinGlass data shows Octobers have averaged a gain of 18.7% since 2013, with only three down months in the past 13 years and 2014 the worst at -13%; an average October would finish just under $100,000. That tailwind follows a third quarter with gains above 40%, the best since the 2017 bull market and one that lands two years after the most recent Bitcoin Halving. Cycle-valuation frameworks such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart remain a common reference for where 2026 sits, and for investors inclined to HODL through seasonal noise, the question is whether this statistical edge survives a hawkish Fed.

The Level That Ends the Range Trade

Adding a longer-dated frame to the range debate, a pseudonymous analyst with more than 200,000 followers on X known as Killa argued that Bitcoin's next all-time high may not arrive until 2027. In his latest assessment he noted that market cycles have been shortening, with the time needed to form the 2022 and 2026 bottoms coming in faster than in prior cycles, which he reads as an accelerated recovery phase that could pull the next upleg forward. On that basis he projected a new peak between May and July 2027, at the latest by early August 2027. Killa previously drew attention for correctly calling the May 2025 bull market top, though he stressed the new call is a projection rather than a firm price target.

Separate technical work published Monday morning added texture to the standoff at the yearly open. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $86,084 on Bitstamp as of 8:45 a.m. ET after an hourly rally from $84,713 to $86,969 met heavy sell orders around $85,500, with buyers clawing price back toward $86,000. The read flagged a crowded resistance band from $86,949 to $87,400 and a daily moving-average board of 13 bullish, 1 neutral and 1 bearish signal, the lone sell coming from the 9-period Hull moving average at $86,097, almost exactly where spot sat. Oscillators did not confirm the bulls: RSI at 66 and stochastics at 75 read neutral, while momentum and MACD printed bearish on the daily. The framework held that holding $85,500 and clearing $87,400 opens room above $88,000, while losing $85,000 exposes $84,300–$84,500.

Overnight, sellers turned Bitcoin back from just above $87,000 for the third time since Sept. 23, and the price slid 1.2% to about $85,600 in Tuesday Asian hours. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted the asset has formed a trend of higher local lows since the start of last week but lacks momentum, and said price has approached the apex of a triangle between horizontal resistance and rising support, a setup that typically precedes sharper volatility on a break. The total crypto market slipped to about $2.93 trillion, just under the $2.95 trillion FxPro marks as resistance, with BNB down 2.5% and ADA an outlier, up 11%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record and the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 5.32%, while Ray Dalio warned of weakening Chinese and Japanese demand for Treasuries.

(as of 20:04 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the nearest resistance at $87,353.03 a strong 81/100, built on a Fibo 0.000, Keltner Upper, PDH and HVN full confluence, with $86,385.74 at 63/100 from R1, HVN 5, SW5H and VWAP +2SD. Below spot, support at $84,793.42 scores 83/100 from S1, LVN 5, Ichimoku Tenkan and PWO, and $83,718.85 sits at 83/100 via EMA 20, S2, Fibo 0.114 and SW8L. RSI prints 64.02 with a bearish MACD inside an uptrend, while funding at 0.0023%, open interest of $16.60 billion and a 1.14 long/short ratio (53.2% long) point to lightly leveraged positioning tilted modestly long, and a Fear and Greed reading of 73. The complete level map sits in our Bitcoin technical analysis. A daily close above $87,353.03 would open the path toward $88,692.03; losing $84,793.42, then $83,718.85, invalidates the bullish read.