Glassnode Data: Bitcoin (BTC) Sell-Side Risk Ratio Halves to 7 Basis Points

Sellers Quiet, Buyers Absent

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its retreat on Friday, pressing toward $77,000 during Asian hours and briefly dipping to roughly $76,700 even as selling pressure stayed oddly muted. The latest Week On-chain report shows the seven-day average sell-side risk ratio — realized profit and loss relative to realized cap — has compressed to about 7 basis points per day, less than half the roughly 16 basis points of the August peak and far below the 35 and 23 basis points reached at last year's July and October highs. Long-term holders' share of realized profits has fallen from 88% to 47%, pointing to fading demand rather than panic distribution. Read more in our Bitcoin coverage.

Weekly EMA Under Test

On the charts, the picture is similarly cautious. BTC lost the $78,000 support area, the four-hour RSI slid to 34.25 and the Supertrend flipped bearish, putting first recovery resistance near $79,060. Analyst Ted Pillows notes Bitcoin is testing its 50-week exponential moving average around $77,000 and warns that a weekly close beneath it could open a drop toward the $72,000–$74,000 zone. Derivatives add nuance: trader Daan Crypto Trades observed fresh shorts entered around $78,000 with liquidation clusters stacked near $80,000 — funding rates are turning negative, so a reclaim of $78,000 could force shorts to cover and fuel a squeeze toward that liquidity.

HODL Wave Anomaly

Deeper onchain history reinforces the caution. HODL Waves data shows that when BTC briefly fell below $58,000 on July 1, supply dormant one to seven days stood at just 1.97%, edging up only to 2.35% by July 5 — an unusually tepid reaction at what looked like a macro low. Onchain analyst Willy Woo called the pattern an anomaly, arguing that whoever bought the bottom did so slowly and may even have been a single whale. Trader Rekt Capital adds that the bear-market structure of lower highs remains intact, warning a weekly close below roughly $78,300 could set up a May-style breakdown.

Macro Headwinds Build

The drawdown is not confined to Bitcoin. Zcash (ZEC), one of the year's strongest performers after a roughly 2,220% twelve-month run, fell 9.7% in 24 hours, while Hyperliquid's HYPE dropped about 4.3% below $80. The macro backdrop has hardened: August PPI rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% year over year, beating both forecasts and the prior reading. Energy costs are feeding the inflation picture — US diesel topping $6 a gallon for the first time — and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.9%, closing in on the 5% mark that historically pressures risk assets.

ETF Outflows and Mideast Risk

Institutional flows are compounding the pressure on the ETF complex. US spot Bitcoin funds logged three consecutive sessions of net outflows — about $46.6 million on September 8, $120.2 million the next day, then $283 million on September 10, roughly $450 million in total — with ARK 21Shares' ARKB alone shedding about $164 million in that final session. Weekly outflows reached $449.4 million through Thursday, threatening a three-week inflow streak. Meanwhile, Iran said it attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Mocha, pushing crude to its highest since May and adding a geopolitical premium — as we noted in our ETF outflow breakdown.

Markets Await CPI

By Friday's European morning, BTC traded near $77,000, down more than 1% over 24 hours and about 5% on the week, after clawing back toward $77,300 — still 6% below last week's high near $82,284. Aggregate crypto futures open interest has slid to $59.5 billion from $62.4 billion on Wednesday, and 24-hour liquidations climbed to $256.3 million, with Bitcoin accounting for $60.3 million of that. Brent crude slipped below $104 a barrel, though it is up nearly 8% since Monday. Attention now turns to the August CPI print, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting, with rate-hike odds near 69%. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

$75,545 Support in Focus

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the battleground precisely. Spot trades at $76,847.79, down 1.53% over 24 hours, wedged just under the $77,128 resistance our engine rates 78/100, driven by Fibo 0.214, Pivot Point and a MACD cross confluence. Below, the $75,545.67 support scores 82/100 (Flip R→S, Donchian Lower, S1) with the $73,703.84 shelf also at 82/100 (HVN, Fibo 0.382, EMA 50). Perpetual funding stays mildly positive at 0.0027% on $15.41 billion of open interest and a 1.63 long/short ratio, while Fear & Greed reads 56 (Greed). Holding $75,545 keeps the broader uptrend intact; losing it targets $73,704 and invalidates the bullish thesis.