92% of Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit, Maartunn Data Shows

92% of Short-Term Supply Sits in Profit

The Bitcoin (BTC) price sits at $84,610, and the coins beneath it carry the session's decisive reading: on-chain data published on October 3 shows 92% of short-term holder supply in profit, about 3.27 million Bitcoin (BTC). On-chain analyst Maartunn reported it on X on Saturday, and the figure puts the cost basis of nearly every recent buyer below the market. Short-term holders, under the standard 155-day on-chain definition, are addresses that acquired coins within the past five months; the boundary splits fresh demand from older, seasoned holders whose positions are tracked separately. The metric prices each coin moved inside that window at its last on-chain transfer and marks it profitable whenever that transfer price sits under the current quote. The cohort draws this much attention because it turns over fastest, so its cost basis records where recent demand actually paid. At 92%, the underwater slice is thin: buyers who filled the advance into the mid-$80,000s are, almost to a coin, ahead. The 3.27 million BTC in profit amounts to a little over 15% of the 21 million supply cap. The position matters at both edges of the chart. Below, the aggregate cost base works as a demand shelf, since investors holding gains have no accounting reason to sell into weakness. Above, the same supply is ammunition, because unrealized profit is the raw material of profit-taking. The percentage has climbed with each advance this cycle, and price has moved little since the reading was published, holding inside the $84,000 to $85,000 band. A reading this high has historically appeared during sustained advances; the metric itself does not say whether the advance continues. What it fixes is the floor: the market now trades above the entry prices of nearly everyone who bought recently.

@JA_Maartun · X post

Reported it on X.

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The same number cuts both ways. Profitability across 92% of the cohort means the market trades above its recent cost base, which removes the forced seller from the downside; investors under water, not investors in the black, drive capitulation on dips. The mirror image is a realization pool: 3.27 million Bitcoin (BTC) of unrealized gains, and every leg higher widens it. Earlier advances in 2026 were followed by stretches in which profit-motivated transfers to exchanges picked up once short-term holders moved into the black, so the ratio reads as a condition, not a promise. Confirmation, when analysts look for it, comes from two places. The first is STH-SOPR, the ratio between the value of coins spent and the price at which they were bought; readings above 1 confirm spending at a profit. The second is exchange inflow data, where the size and destination of deposits, from whale-sized transfers down to retail clips, show whether distribution has started. Demand on the other side of the ledger has been steady: spot ETFs booked $31.69 million in Friday net inflows, led by Fidelity's FBTC. Overhead, a recent rejection at $87,220 set the ceiling of the current band, and the market has held between that failed test and the low-$84,000s since. The broader cycle has run since the most recent halving, and this cohort's habit of selling early or extending has historically decided whether advances stretch or consolidate. The percentage in profit also cushions the tape: a pullback toward the cohort's average entry would meet sellers who are still ahead, not sellers bleeding out. The open question is behavioral: realize into strength, or simply HODL. More context lives in our Bitcoin coverage.

$84,021 Floor, $86,574 Ceiling

COINOTAG's 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine, the basis of our Bitcoin technical analysis, rates the $84,021 support at 86/100 (STRONG), driven by the 20-day EMA and the swing low, with the 0.114 Fibonacci level adding weight. The overhead resistance at $86,574 scores 82/100 (STRONG) on the Donchian Upper band and the swing high. Spot at $84,610 sits $588 above the floor and $1,965 under the ceiling. The derivatives book leans neutral: funding at -0.0030% against $16.09 billion in open interest and a 1.25 long/short account ratio, with 55.5% of accounts long. The Fear & Greed Index reads 67, Greed. RSI at 63.26 with an intact uptrend argues the floor holds; the bearish MACD signal is the counterpoint, and a daily close under $84,021 invalidates the constructive read. Measured distance to the nearest edge: $588.