Bitcoin (BTC) Slips 2% After US Producer Inflation Tops Forecast at 5.4%

Hot PPI Print Knocks BTC Below $77,000

Bitcoin (BTC) fell roughly 2% on Thursday and briefly slipped below $77,000 after a hotter-than-expected United States producer inflation reading revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. Producer prices rose 5.4% year over year, overshooting the 5.1% consensus, and the print pushed 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels in 19 years while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed toward 5%. The mechanics are unforgiving: when risk-free government paper pays close to a 5% yield, the marginal dollar migrates out of assets with no cash flow, and rolling leveraged positions in Bitcoin and other digital assets becomes structurally more expensive. A broad index of major crypto tokens dropped about 3% in the same session, with Zcash leading losses at roughly 18% to trade near $1,108, Hyperliquid's HYPE down close to 10% on the week and Dogecoin also among the weakest performers. Attention now turns to August consumer price index data, where headline inflation is expected at 3.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.4%; a hot CPI print would harden the case for a hike at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as we laid out in our coverage of Bitcoin and rising Fed rate-hike odds. Outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETF vehicles have accelerated alongside the yield move, adding persistent sell-side pressure to a fragile tape. Market watchers flag $76,270 as the near-term line to defend — a decisive break there leaves Bitcoin exposed to a deeper retracement, while a softer CPI could revive the easing expectations that powered its earlier run, a scenario also explored in our report on BTC capped below $80K after the Core CPI beat.

Golden Cross Meets Rising Yields

Against that macro backdrop, a classic bullish chart signal has formed. On September 8, Bitcoin's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day counterpart — a so-called golden cross that traders read as confirmation of a long-term uptrend, as tracked across Bitcoin market coverage. The last comparable setup, in 2019, was followed by a rally of roughly 90% in under two months. History counsels caution, however: BTC has printed 12 golden crosses, and only three saw the bullish signal survive a full year. Those three were followed by average gains of about 250% over the subsequent year, while the remaining nine delivered an average return of 24.9% at the three-month mark — positive on average, but wildly uneven. Crossovers in October 2024 and May 2025 fizzled without a sustained move; both formed during corrective phases, whereas the current signal arrived after an extended bull run, making the 2019 parallel the closer comparison. The immediate problem is that price is not confirming the chart. BTC traded near $78,000 on September 10 and slid into the mid-$76,000s during Asian hours on September 11, as the US 10-year yield reached 4.965% and Brent crude pushed above $108 a barrel — a combination that stokes inflation persistence. Rate futures currently assign a 71.3% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC. Because moving averages smooth past prices, a golden cross confirms momentum that has already happened rather than predicting what comes next; even committed long-term HODL positioning must first get through the macro filter, and our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart cycle guide frames how price, not signals, ultimately validates an uptrend. Analysts argue Bitcoin must reclaim the $80,000 area it lost earlier this month for the cross to carry weight. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

$77,100 Support Decides Next Move

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $77,100 support at 83/100, driven by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.214 retracement, the 20-day EMA, the recent swing low and the lower Bollinger Band; spot trades at $77,310, essentially flat over 24 hours. Overhead, the $78,600 resistance scores 76/100 from R1, the ATR upper band and the Bollinger midline, with $81,711 next at 73/100. RSI at 55.16 and a still-uptrending structure sit against a bearish MACD signal. Derivatives positioning leans crowded-long: funding at 0.0021%, open interest near $14.89 billion and a 1.68 long/short account ratio (62.7% long), while the Fear & Greed Index reads 63 (Greed). Holding $77,100 keeps the recovery scenario alive; losing it invalidates the bullish thesis and opens the moderate $75,780 shelf.