Bitcoin (BTC) Slips to $77,400 After Core CPI Tops Forecasts

Core CPI Beat Clouds Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) ran toward $79,500 in the minutes after the United States released August consumer price data on Friday, then gave nearly all of it back, trading near $77,400 within hours. The headline consumer price index rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% year-on-year, both matching forecasts, but the core reading — which strips out food and energy — climbed 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus. Gasoline drove the upside, jumping 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than a third of the total increase, while shelter costs added 0.3%, their first meaningful rise in three months; airfares rose 23.4% year-on-year. On an annual basis core inflation sits at 2.4%, still the smallest increase since 2021. Researchers at crypto ETF issuer 21Shares note that after previous core-CPI surprises, BTC gained an average of 2.13% over the following 30 days.

CoinShares Sees $80,000 Cap

Asset manager CoinShares struck a two-sided tone on the print. Head of Research James Butterfill argues that firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy and could keep the Bitcoin market pinned below $80,000 for now. The longer-term case, however, rests on Washington: the US Treasury's expanded bond buyback programme has so far failed to materially suppress long-end yields, and persistent pressure would likely push Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent toward a far larger, “bazooka-style” purchasing operation. Butterfill frames that as one of the more powerful medium-term catalysts for the asset, feeding the debasement narrative that lifted both BTC and gold through a dollar-softening August, when the Treasury announced it would double long-dated buybacks. The scarcity logic of its proof-of-work, fixed-supply design and halving cycle is what makes the asset a natural hedge in that scenario.

Golden Cross Flickers Off

Friday's round trip also scrambled the chart. The daily 50-day exponential moving average briefly crossed above its 200-day counterpart — a golden cross, the first since last November — before the retreat pulled it back underneath. The session candle opened at $76,529, spiked to an intraday high of $79,837 and slid to a low of $76,040 before settling near $77,438, still a 1.19% daily gain. Because the two averages sit so close together, a single volatile session can toggle the signal, and the candle remains open, so the reading could flip again by the close. Trend strength is firmer than the label suggests: the daily ADX sits at 45, well above the 25 threshold separating trend from noise, with the RSI at a neutral-bullish 55.5. On the 4-hour chart the golden cross formed in late August is intact, though momentum has cooled, with RSI at 43.3 and ADX at a thin 25.1.

Post-Hike Track Record

Historical data on Fed hiking cycles adds a cautionary layer. Data compiled by analyst Sherlock shows the probability of a hike jumped from 58.4% to 86.4% in just seven days. Reviewing the 20 rate increases since 2015, the dataset finds BTC closed higher on the decision day 11 times — yet in 10 of those 11 cases it traded below that level one month later. Seventeen of the 20 episodes ended with lower prices 30 days out, with a median drawdown of 9.3%; a similar pullback from roughly $78,000 maps to about $70,700, which would deepen the spot demand deficit of 145,000 BTC flagged in recent correction warnings. Cycle-start hikes were harsher: BTC lost 19% in the 30 days after December 2015's first increase and fell as much as 46.3% within 90 days of the March 2022 pivot. Futures pricing implies a 72.6% chance rates sit at least 50 basis points higher by December, and analysts have tied such repricing to S&P 500 correction risk spilling into crypto. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

Greed Still Dominates Positioning

COINOTAG's aggregate read tempers the bear case: our Fear & Greed Index prints 56, still Greed, and BTC holds 68% of our tracked $2.28 trillion market — a Greed reading suggests holders still lean toward HODL rather than exit. Traders appear to be hedging a hawkish September 16 surprise, not de-risking.