Bitcoin (BTC) SOPR Stays Above 1 for Third Week, Longest Profit Run of 2026

SOPR Holds Above Breakeven Since Aug. 19

Bitcoin (BTC) is printing its longest on-chain profit streak of 2026, with the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) holding above its breakeven level of 1 for a third consecutive week, CryptoQuant data shows. The metric compares the realized price of coins moving on-chain against the price recorded at their previous transaction, and it has not dropped below 1 since Aug. 19, currently reading 1.002. Values above 1 mean that, on average, coins are being spent in profit — a structure typically associated with bullish momentum — while readings beneath that threshold signal loss-making spending. Because SOPR usually oscillates in a tight band around 1, a deviation sustained for three full weeks stands out against the rest of the year. The pair has held a local range near $80,000 throughout the streak, keeping the debate over whether a new macro uptrend has begun wide open. Much of the focus has shifted to short-term holders, the cohort of wallets that have held a UTXO for up to six months without selling, whose own SOPR has recovered above breakeven in parallel with the aggregate reading. On-chain analytics suite Checkonchain argued on X over the weekend that the behavioral difference is decisive: in bear markets, rallies back into profitability tend to be sold into, while in bull markets, brief dips below breakeven become accumulation setups. The account added that the present structure increasingly resembles those early bull-market recoveries. Sentiment on the data side has warmed accordingly — in late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the bear market as already over, citing the firm's proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. For readers tracking the wider Bitcoin market, this is the clearest on-chain divergence of the year so far.

argued on Xhttps://x.com/_checkonchain/status/2097524694400618734

Puell Keeps Downside Risk on the Table

Not everyone is prepared to call the trend reversed. ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell, creator of the Puell multiple indicator, said in a Sept. 4 interview with CryptoQuant that Bitcoin's roughly 25% August rally is not yet sufficient evidence that this cycle's floor is in. Asked how that upside could carry into Q4, he framed the less likely outcome as further gains, saying the team leaves it, for now, as downside risk. Puell was specific about what would change his long-term bias: SOPR must stay above 1 for an extended period, investors must keep realizing profits consistently without price printing a new macro low, and weekly time frames must build a sequence of higher highs and higher lows — a pattern he noted is still absent from the chart. His argument is that profitability and price structure have to improve together before a trend-reversal call is justified, rather than one metric moving alone. The behavioral data adds a genuine nuance to his caution. Earlier this cycle, short-term-holder rallies back into profit were repeatedly sold into; this time, profit realization is persisting across both the STH cohort and aggregate SOPR, hinting that seller behavior may actually have shifted. There is also a mechanical counterweight: a wave of new Bitcoin whales is sitting on roughly $9 billion in unrealized gains, a supply overhang that introduces sell-side risk precisely as the profitability streak matures. Whether those holders choose to HODL through the next leg or distribute into strength may decide the streak's fate. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

Higher Highs Still Missing

COINOTAG's reading is that on-chain profitability has healed faster than price structure, and that gap is the whole story. The primary records behind this piece — CryptoQuant's SOPR series and Checkonchain's cohort analysis — describe consistent profit realization, which historically accompanies early recoveries, but neither document claims confirmation on its own. Post-halving cycle history suggests trend calls need both sustained breakeven spending and a recovering weekly structure; until higher lows appear, the streak remains necessary, not sufficient. Traders framing the Q4 setup may find a Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide useful for placing the current range in broader cycle context.