Darkfost: Bitcoin (BTC) Spot Volume Recovered From 3-Year Lows After July Bottom

Spot Volumes Climb Out of 3-Year Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $86,500 on Sunday afternoon, up 2.1% over the past 24 hours, and the analyst conversation has shifted from the level itself to the spot trading volume sitting underneath the advance. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published data on X on October 4 showing that Bitcoin's spot volumes bottomed alongside the July price trough at their weakest readings since the previous bear market, a stretch he describes as the faintest market interest in the asset in roughly three years. Spot activity then recovered gradually through September, yet the rebound remains incremental rather than forceful, concentrated in a handful of large venues. The July trough was not an isolated reading but the continuation of a slow bleed in participation that had run since the depths of the prior bear market, which makes the September figures the first measurable sign of a turn. Turnover has not returned to the ranges that accompanied earlier strong phases of this cycle, and Darkfost argues the gap is the variable that decides whether the current advance extends. The metric matters for a specific reason: spot volume records actual Bitcoin (BTC) changing hands between buyers and sellers, as distinct from leveraged derivatives turnover or passive flows into spot ETF products. Because it captures direct, unlevered demand, analysts treat a price advance that expands alongside spot participation as structurally healthier than one carried by leverage alone. For markets that have spent months leaning on derivatives, that distinction has been the difference between breakouts that hold and rallies that fade. Bitcoin price has climbed in step with this modest volume pickup, a pattern Darkfost reads as fragile while spot demand lags momentum. His conclusion, laid out in the same post, is that new highs require spot volume and genuine buying pressure to accelerate conspicuously from September's pace, not simply more headline price action.

@Darkfost_Coc · X post

Published data on X on October 4.

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The exchange-level breakdown shows where that incremental demand is arriving. Binance, the largest venue by a wide margin, logged more than $50 billion in monthly Bitcoin (BTC) spot volume for September, up from $42 billion in July, an increase of roughly 19% that keeps it ahead of every other major exchange. Bybit expanded from $14 billion to $19 billion over the same window, while Kraken doubled its monthly figure from $4 billion to $8 billion. Kraken's doubling is the sharpest proportional move among the three, though from the smallest base. All three moves landed in the same weeks that the asset's price rebuilt upward momentum, which supports the volume-price correlation Darkfost described. Darkfost's dataset covers monthly aggregates across the leading venues, which smooths out intraday spikes and isolates the underlying participation trend. His caution is that the absolute levels still sit below the strong market periods of previous cycle legs, so the recovery reads as an early-stage improvement rather than a full return of speculative appetite. The warning echoes his earlier assessment that a $4 billion stablecoin rebound was too timid to carry new highs on its own. It also fits the broader argument that the next sustained leg needs a wider demand base, from ETF allocators and corporate treasuries building a strategic Bitcoin reserve to long-term HODL holders, rather than leverage alone. A fuller picture of the asset's quarter sits in our Bitcoin market coverage. For traders reallocating across venues as the volume mix shifts, our standing review of the Best Crypto Exchanges tracks fees and order-book depth at the majors. CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju has argued separately that Bitcoin's new cycle can still deliver 3-5x gains, a scenario that in his framework likewise assumes fresh demand rather than inertia does the work.

$87,403 Resistance Rated 82/100

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $87,403 resistance at 82/100, driven by the confluence of the Fibo 0.000 projection, Donchian Upper, Swing High and Keltner Upper, while the nearest support at $85,042 scores 71/100 on ATR Lower, S2, Fibo 0.114 and Ichimoku Tenkan. RSI sits at 68.48 and the MACD signal is bearish inside a broader uptrend. Derivatives positioning is constructive without being euphoric: funding runs at 0.0043%, open interest stands at $16.6 billion and the long/short account ratio reads 1.06, while the Fear and Greed Index prints 65, in Greed territory. A daily close above $87,403 would open the path higher; losing $85,042 would invalidate the bullish structure. The full Bitcoin technical analysis is updated continuously.