Bitcoin Could Fall to $55K Before Bottoming, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) may have further to fall before it finds a durable floor, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, who sees the leading cryptocurrency potentially testing the $55,000 region after briefly slipping under $60,000. Thielen argues this corrective phase is not yet complete, pointing to a strengthening U.S. dollar, a Federal Reserve holding a hawkish posture, cooling risk-asset demand, and leveraged positions that have yet to be fully flushed out. A move to $55,000 would mark roughly an 8% decline from the $60,000 mark, a level traders increasingly view as the next meaningful support zone and a test of conviction among longer-term holders of Bitcoin.

Capital flows are flashing a fresh warning. Rolling one-year flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) have turned negative for the first time since 2023, meaning outflows over the trailing 12 months now exceed inflows. Spot ETFs and other ETP structures were a primary engine behind Bitcoin's prior advance, so the annual flow flipping into the red signals that institutional allocators are pulling back. K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde noted that ETP holdings have fallen roughly 8% from their peak, a shift visible in both position size and the direction of capital that suggests the market has entered an adjustment phase rather than a brief pause.

Sentiment among retail investors is souring in parallel. Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy publicly questioned the long-running million-dollar Bitcoin thesis after the asset dropped beneath $60,000, asking why the skeptics who long called it a scam might be wrong. His remarks capture a broader mood swing: during the market's euphoric stretches, lofty targets and even fresh all-time high projections dominated discussion, but the recent drawdown has shifted attention toward capital flows, liquidity conditions, and concrete support levels. Trading strategies have turned more defensive as participants reassess near-term risk instead of anchoring decisions to distant long-term price goals.

A more aggressive downside scenario is also circulating. LeBit mining pool founder Jiang Zhuo'er projects that this cycle's bear market low could land between $42,000 and $44,000, implying close to 30% additional downside from current levels around $60,000. His framework blends Strategy's market valuation with a four-year Bitcoin cycle model; the model points to a trough near $44,016 around October 31, 2026, with the broader bottom forming between October and December. Jiang cautions the model is more reliable on timing than on the exact price, but he expects the deepest part of the correction to arrive in the fourth quarter.

Jiang's call leans heavily on Strategy's mNAV, or market net asset value multiple — the ratio between the company's stock price and the per-share value of its Bitcoin holdings. That multiple has slid to 0.72, meaning the market now values the firm below the worth of the Bitcoin it holds, a level close to the prior cycle's turning point. In the last downturn, mNAV bottomed near 0.7 in May 2022 when Bitcoin traded around $31,017, yet Bitcoin itself did not bottom until roughly six months later at $15,476. If that lead-lag pattern repeats, a true price floor could still be months away.

Technical signals reinforce the cautious tone. Brokerage analysts flag that Bitcoin is testing its 200-week moving average, a long-term trend line whose breaches have historically preceded extended periods of weak, range-bound trading, with $55,000 cited as a plausible next low. Jiang, whose background in ASIC mining shapes his cycle view, has floated a long-Strategy, short-Bitcoin arbitrage trade, wagering that the company's valuation bottoms first and the gap between the two eventually closes. He says his shorter-term posture has been to sell spot and short the market, but he intends to rotate back into long-term spot accumulation once prices reach his projected bottom band.

From our own desk, COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $58,115 support at 80/100 — its strongest reading — built on the confluence of a Fibonacci 0.000 retracement, the prior-day low, and the lower Donchian band, making it the line bulls must defend. On the upside, the engine scores the $60,858 resistance at 73/100 (R1 pivot, Fibonacci 0.114, high-volume node) and $62,909 at 71/100 (point of control, R3). An RSI near 30.10 signals oversold conditions even as MACD stays bearish in a confirmed downtrend. Derivatives show a 0.0043% funding rate and a 2.23 long/short ratio — 69% long — leaving over-positioned longs exposed if $58,115 fails, while a Fear & Greed reading of 13 (Extreme Fear) keeps sentiment depressed. Reclaiming $62,909 would invalidate the bearish thesis.