Bitcoin Eyes CPI Test as Rate-Hike Odds Hit 70%, Arca Blames Saylor for Crash

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin traders are bracing for Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index release, an inflation reading that could set the tone for risk assets into year-end. Markets now price a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, and a hotter-than-expected print would likely push those odds beyond 80%. Bitcoin changed hands near $62,747 heading into the data, well below its May peak above $82,000, while gold slipped to roughly $4,330. Both assets have retreated as traders abandoned rate-cut bets in favor of tightening expectations, leaving the inflation figure as the single most important catalyst this week.

A sharp dispute has erupted over what triggered last week's selloff, which dragged Bitcoin down nearly 14% to $60,000. Strategy chairman Michael Saylor attributed the slide to the artificial intelligence buildout absorbing capital "at a historic scale," arguing it strengthens rather than weakens the case for scarce digital assets. Investment firm Arca rejected that framing outright, with chief investment officer Jeff Dorman calling it "gaslighting." Dorman pinned the drop squarely on Strategy itself, after the company disclosed on June 1 that it had sold 32 BTC the prior week, its first reduction after a long stretch of relentless accumulation.

The hawkish repricing accelerated after the May employment report showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs, sharply above the 85,000 forecast. Newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in on May 22, has signaled a firmer commitment to inflation discipline, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reinforced that message, warning the central bank may need to act soon. Headline inflation currently sits at 3.3%, still above the Fed's 2% target. Higher rates erode the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, since Treasury bonds and other yield-bearing instruments become comparatively more attractive when borrowing costs climb.

Arca's deeper concern is what the 32 BTC sale, worth only about $2.5 million, actually implies. Dorman argued the market reacted not to the size of the disposal but to the realization that Strategy may need to sell far more to cover cash dividend obligations on its preferred shares, including the STRC series. The firm still holds 845,256 BTC but has roughly five months of cash flow remaining, according to Dorman's estimates. The fear of the largest corporate holder turning into a forced seller has weighed heavily on sentiment, raising questions about how much additional supply could eventually hit the market.

The macro backdrop extends well beyond crypto, with gold caught in the same crosscurrents. The precious metal has fallen to its weakest level since late March as rate-hike expectations climbed, yet major banks have built bullish year-end targets in the $5,400 to $6,300 range, contingent on inflation cooling toward the Fed's goal. A softer CPI print would ease the urgency of tightening and remove the primary pressure weighing on both assets. The parallel moves underscore how tightly Bitcoin now trades alongside traditional inflation hedges, behaving less like an isolated speculative bet and more like a macro-sensitive asset class.

There is a path to stabilization, according to Arca. Dorman suggested that if Saylor filed an 8-K disclosing that Strategy had raised $2 to $4 billion through a mix of stock and Bitcoin sales, enough to fund preferred dividends through September 2028, markets could rally sharply and lift the forced-seller overhang. He doubts that will happen, describing Saylor as effectively "addicted to buying Bitcoin" and predicting continued monthly drip selling instead. Whether that scenario materializes could decide whether the next leg resembles a renewed bull market or a deeper bear market toward last week's lows.

Technically, Bitcoin trades around $63,282, up a marginal 0.5% on the day but firmly within a downtrend. The relative strength index sits at 27.52, deep in oversold territory, while the MACD continues to flash a bearish signal. Immediate support rests at $61,921, with deeper levels at $59,131 and $52,679 should selling intensify. Resistance stands at $64,207, followed by $66,611 and $70,990. A daily candlestick close back above $64,207 would ease bearish pressure, while a breakdown below $59,131 likely confirms continuation toward $52,679. The oversold RSI hints at a relief bounce, but the bearish MACD keeps the broader trend pointed lower.