Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Balances Rebound 28K Coins, Erasing 84% of Six-Week Outflow

Bitcoin News

On-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) exchange balances have climbed by roughly 28,000 coins since late July, erasing about 84% of the six-week drawdown that had fueled concerns over a supply squeeze. The rebound lifted exchange-held supply to its highest level since June 15, according to the exchange-supply metric tracked by an analytics firm. The earlier outflow had pulled balances from about 1.337 million BTC on June 12 to roughly 1.304 million BTC on July 28, a decline of approximately 2.5%. The subsequent recovery brought balances to around 1.332 million BTC by Aug. 16. The data challenges the narrative that spot Bitcoin ETF demand is rapidly depleting readily tradable inventory. ETF inflows and exchange balances measure different parts of market structure; SEC approval of in-kind creations lets authorized participants deliver bitcoin directly to funds rather than starting every creation with an open-market purchase. In the first week of August, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $853.54 million in net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $693.5 million, its largest weekly intake since April. That inflow streak ended Aug. 10, and a $61.16 million outflow on Aug. 12, led by Fidelity and BlackRock funds, showed institutional demand was not uniform. The analytics firm noted the squeeze took six weeks to build but reversed in under three.

Separately, exchange analysts at Bitfinex said Bitcoin spot trading volume and liquidity have fallen to levels not seen since early 2019, describing the market as unusually quiet. The firm cautioned that Binance's 2022 introduction of a zero-fee campaign has distorted aggregate volume figures; on Binance alone, activity is comparable to the 2023 bear market. Network velocity, a measure of how often coins move on-chain, also dropped to a seven-year low, signaling that holders are not shifting assets and new transactions are scarce. In the firm's view, the current price structure places realized price, the average acquisition cost across market participants, at $52,699 as support, while the short-term holder realized price of $67,176 acts as resistance. The $63,200 area has functioned as support over the past two weeks, but a break below it could open a decline toward $57,803. Bitfinex also argued that Bitcoin has not responded to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts the way equities have, even as stock benchmarks reach all-time highs, since the asset carries no future cash flows to discount. The report said a return to an uptrend would likely require both renewed net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and an increase in stablecoin supply. It flagged the Jackson Hole symposium and the Aug. 19 release of FOMC minutes as liquidity-direction catalysts.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reported in an Aug. 17 SEC filing that it neither bought nor sold any bitcoin between Aug. 10 and Aug. 16, leaving its holdings unchanged at 840,447 BTC. The company's cumulative acquisition cost stands at $63.36 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,385 per coin. During the same window, Strategy sold 3,458,886 shares of common stock through its at-the-market equity program, raising $333.7 million. The stock sale was executed under an ATM program that lets the company issue shares opportunistically rather than through a single registered offering. The filing allocates $52.4 million of the proceeds to dividend payments on its perpetual preferred stock STRC, $132.2 million to STRC share buybacks, and $149.1 million to building dollar reserves. The pause leaves the company's accumulation activity on hold during the week, even as it continued to raise equity capital. MSTR closed the regular session up 4.99% at $97.68, and edged up another 0.29% to $97.96 in after-hours trading, while STRC slipped 0.44% to $94.36. The 8-K filing, which covers the five-session window, did not state whether the company intends to resume bitcoin acquisitions in coming weeks. The unchanged position means Strategy's bitcoin treasury, accumulated at an average price of $75,385, remains the largest among publicly traded companies.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the nearest support at $63,921.69 at 92/100, driven by Ichimoku Kijun and EMA 20. The immediate resistance at $64,509.40 scores 53/100, supported by Flip S→R and LVN. Spot traded at $64,322.87, up 1.80%, with RSI at 53.28 and MACD bullish. Derivatives show perp funding at 0.0031%, open interest of $13.62 billion, and a long/short ratio of 1.52, with 60.3% of accounts long. The Fear & Greed Index at 41/100 (Fear) suggests positioning is not euphoric. A sustained break above $64,509 would likely target $65,268, while losing $63,921 would invalidate the near-term bullish thesis and expose $63,288.