Bitcoin Futures Reset Near $59K as Standard Chartered Holds $100K Target, $4.4B Exits ETFs

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin rallied toward $64,000 on Monday, yet the move unfolded against a notably weaker futures backdrop, raising questions about whether the rebound can hold. Aggregated open interest slid to 255,000 BTC from 282,000 BTC during the recent selloff and remains well below last week's peak even after price recovered from $59,000. The funding rate flipped slightly positive at 0.0013 after briefly turning negative, signaling muted long positioning rather than aggressive leverage. Analysts highlight that much of the bounce appears driven by short positions closing rather than fresh buyers stepping in, leaving the recovery on relatively thin technical footing for now.

On-chain order book data points to a substantial demand zone beneath current prices, with roughly 2,565 BTC in resting bid liquidity stacked between $57,000 and $59,000. At prevailing levels that cluster is worth around $162 million, forming one of the largest visible pockets of buy interest below spot. Spot cumulative volume delta has improved by about 11,000 BTC since Friday, indicating that weeks of persistent distribution may finally be slowing. Market commentators note that Bitcoin has exited an extreme leverage phase and shifted into moderate territory, though it has not yet reached the deeper deleveraging zone historically tied to stronger accumulation opportunities.

Despite the turbulence, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its forecast for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by December 31, even after the asset briefly broke below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, described the selloff as painful but argued the bulk of the selling pressure may already be exhausted. From roughly $63,400, that target implies about 57.8% upside over some 206 days, equal to near 0.22% compounded daily. The bank had previously trimmed its goal from $300,000 to $150,000 and then to $100,000 before this post-crash hold.

The decline that dragged Bitcoin toward $60,000 was fueled by a sharp cocktail of forced selling and fading institutional demand. A single session produced roughly $1.8 billion in liquidations, while US-traded spot ETF products bled about $4.4 billion across 13 consecutive outflow sessions as capital rotated toward AI equities. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index collapsed to a reading of 12, deep in extreme fear, and Bitcoin sat more than 51% below its October 2025 all-time high. By early June, however, ETF flows turned marginally positive, handing bulls a tentative reversal signal to track.

Strategy's first Bitcoin sale since 2022 added a psychological jolt that outweighed its modest size. The company offloaded just 32 BTC, an amount too small to justify the wave of selling it appeared to trigger, yet the symbolism rattled sentiment at a fragile moment. Kendrick acknowledged the timing was unfortunate but pointed to the firm's track record of repurchasing more than it sold after each prior disposal. Supporting that view, Strategy disclosed a fresh acquisition between June 1 and June 7, which the analyst cited as early confirmation that the aggressive accumulation pattern he anticipated has already resumed following the drawdown.

Reaching six figures, however, requires four conditions to align, according to the bank's framework. ETF outflows must stop dictating the marginal price, a shift already hinted at by June's slightly positive flows. Strategy has to remain a net buyer, supported by its latest purchase, and regulatory momentum around the CLARITY Act needs to re-enter institutional calculations. The final and most technical hurdle is reclaiming key trend levels: the 30-day moving average near $75,685 and the 200-day moving average near $78,840 mark the line separating a crash recovery from a renewed sustained uptrend. Until then, the path to $100,000 stays conditional.

Technically, Bitcoin trades near $62,988, down a fraction on the day and locked in a broader downtrend. The most immediate support sits at $61,845, with deeper cushions at $59,131 and $52,679, while resistance stacks at $64,203, $66,611 and $68,192. RSI at 25.94 is firmly in oversold territory, hinting at the potential for a relief bounce, yet the MACD remains bearish and confirms sellers retain control. A reclaim of $64,203 would strengthen the case for a push toward $66,611; conversely, a clean break below $61,845 likely opens the door to $59,131. Losing the $59K demand cluster would invalidate the near-term recovery thesis entirely.