Bitcoin Holds $61K After Worst Week Since FTX as CPI Hits 4.2%, ETFs Bleed $5.5B

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin is clawing back ground after its recent slide beneath the $60,000 mark, holding a critical demand zone that traders now treat as the line between recovery and renewed weakness. After reclaiming lost territory, BTC has held above both its weekly 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, levels that cushioned prior bull-cycle corrections. Analysts highlight the $65,000–$66,000 band as the next pocket of accumulated liquidity and a likely short-term target, while the $58,000–$60,000 region remains the structure to defend. A decisive break below the weekly 200-period average would expose the $48,000–$50,000 zone as the next major floor traders are watching.

The asset just logged its steepest weekly decline since the November 2022 FTX collapse, shedding roughly 16% over seven days and sitting more than 50% below its record peak above $126,000. Selling intensified on June 9 after US Central Command announced military operations against Iran framed as self-defense, sending Bitcoin down about 3% to $61,766 within hours. On-chain liquidation data showed $136 million in long positions wiped out in the following 24 hours, the bulk tied to BTC. Compounding the pressure, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive sessions of net outflows totaling more than $5.5 billion through early June.

Macroeconomic anxiety crystallized around Wednesday's US inflation print, the single most-watched catalyst of the week. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year over year in May, matching forecasts and accelerating from April's 3.8%, marking a three-year high. On a monthly basis, headline CPI climbed just 0.2% against expectations of 0.5%, while core CPI advanced 0.2% versus a 0.3% estimate. The cooler monthly readings reinforced a higher-for-longer rate stance, with markets pricing near-certain odds the Federal Reserve leaves its benchmark at 350–375 basis points on June 17. Bitcoin ticked up briefly after the release but held just above $61,000, broadly unchanged on the day.

Institutional infrastructure expanded even as prices fell, with the launch of Bitcoin volatility index futures on the largest US derivatives exchange. The contracts track a benchmark reflecting the market's expectations for BTC volatility over the coming four weeks, letting traders position on how violently price moves rather than only its direction. DV Chain and Monarq Asset Management executed the first block trades, formally opening the market. The product lets participants go long or short volatility around events such as inflation releases, a hedging tool historically difficult to access on regulated venues. The venue's crypto-derivatives volume has risen roughly 38% year over year to about 266,900 contracts.

On-chain metrics underscore how deep the drawdown has cut into holder profitability. Roughly 51.6% of circulating Bitcoin supply now sits below its cost basis, up sharply from about 34% just a month earlier, leaving profitable and underwater coins nearly evenly split. The reading is rare historically: across records dating to 2010, more than half of supply has been in profit roughly 93% of the time. Comparable readings clustered near the 2015 and 2018 bottoms and after the 2022 FTX collapse. Past cycles suggest such episodes resolve through weeks of choppy, sideways consolidation rather than a sharp rebound, pointing to a grinding washout.

Among asset managers, a cautiously constructive read emerged from a composite on-chain valuation framework suggesting Bitcoin has slipped into undervalued territory. The model blends unrealized profit-and-loss, a coin-days-destroyed long-term valuation gauge, and related metrics, placing price well below its long-run average — though not yet at the deeply discounted levels seen after the FTX implosion. The assessment frames the current bear market as potentially shallower than prior downturns, citing a more measured bull run and a maturing market structure. Two near-term swing factors were flagged: progress on the US CLARITY Act regulatory framework and the resilience of leveraged holders facing liquidation risk.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates immediate resistance at $61,746 a STRONG 76/100, driven by the confluence of a doji candlestick, the prior daily close and a MACD cross, with the next barrier at $64,156 (68/100, ATR Upper and POC). On the downside, the engine scores $59,158 support its strongest at 79/100, anchored by the ATR Lower band and a recent swing low, with $61,008 close behind at 66/100 from the S1 pivot and RSI oversold. Derivatives data shows a thin 0.0034% funding rate and $11.7 billion in open interest, while a 2.10 long/short ratio (67.7% long) flags crowded longs vulnerable to flushing. With RSI at 24 and the Fear & Greed Index at 9 (Extreme Fear), reclaiming $61,746 favors a push toward $64,156; losing $59,158 invalidates the bounce and opens $52,679.