Bitcoin Holds $63K as Electrical-Cost Floor Eyes $48,694 and RSI Hits Record Low

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin trades near $63,000 after a roughly 4% recovery, yet it remains about 50% below its record high, sharpening debate over where this bear market finally bottoms. One closely watched on-chain marker, the Bitcoin Electrical Cost, now sits near $48,694, estimating the average electricity bill miners pay to mint a single coin. Analysts treat the level as a durable floor because price has rarely closed beneath it for long, bouncing off comparable readings at the 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022 lows. A related production-cost metric, which adds hardware and overhead, sits higher and should not be conflated with the pure energy figure.

Wall Street research firm Bernstein pushed back against the prevailing gloom this week, reiterating a $150,000 year-end target that would mark a fresh all-time high. Its analysts argued the quiet year reflects a maturing asset rather than structural decline. Net inflows from ETFs and corporate treasuries have fallen to roughly $12 billion year-to-date, an 80% drop from the $60 billion seen across 2025, while spot Bitcoin funds have logged $2.6 billion in net outflows from a $75 billion base. Bernstein framed the retreat positively, noting retail investors have rotated into AI equities, leaving the holder base increasingly dominated by institutions, pension funds and sovereign wealth buyers.

Corporate accumulation has continued despite the drawdown, with Strategy raising about $7.5 billion this year through its STRC preferred-stock instrument and deploying the proceeds to buy roughly 100,000 BTC. The software firm turned treasury giant now holds more than 845,000 BTC, worth approximately $53.6 billion at current prices. The broader crypto market capitalization stands near $2.25 trillion, still a fraction of the global equity and commodity markets that have absorbed most investor attention this cycle. Several Bitcoin miners, including IREN and Cipher, have pivoted toward AI data-center operations, posting substantial equity gains even as mining margins compress under elevated difficulty and softer coin prices.

Momentum readings have reached extremes that some analysts view as a generational entry point. Bitcoin printed its lowest-ever daily and two-week relative strength index values this week, a condition MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe called the best thesis for accumulating coins. He cautioned that panic-driven selling could persist while simultaneously offering rare opportunities to buy into weakness. On-chain dashboards reinforce part of that view: Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score registered 0.78 for wallets holding under 0.1 BTC and 0.71 for the 10-100 BTC cohort, both signaling consistent buying among smaller participants over recent weeks rather than capitulation.

The accumulation is not uniform across the holder base. Over the past 60 days, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC added 53,042 coins, the largest increase of any cohort, while addresses in the 100-1,000 BTC band absorbed another 12,233 and the 10-100 group added 1,283. The largest entities moved the other way: wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC shed 39,840 coins, and small holders between 1 and 10 BTC also trimmed exposure. The split points to sustained demand from mid-sized whales and retail buyers offsetting distribution from the very largest addresses, a positioning pattern often seen near cycle troughs.

Several analysts have mapped a deeper support structure beneath spot. The 200-week moving average near $62,000 was tagged this month for the first time this cycle, with the 300-week average and realized price clustered around $54,000 below it. The Electrical Cost at $48,694 sits just under that band, and a quarterly fair-value gap between $56,800 and $44,600 flagged by trader Titan of Crypto opens the door toward the $40,000s. Timing models add weight: analyst Benjamin Cowen places his base-case bottom in October 2026, a window roughly 125 days out that aligns with a separate post-halving day count.

At publication Bitcoin changes hands near $63,248, up 2.33% on the day on roughly $22.7 billion in volume, yet the broader structure stays in a downtrend. Immediate support sits at $61,835, with deeper floors at $59,122 and $52,679; reclaiming resistance at $64,194 and then $65,933 is required to shift momentum. The daily RSI near 26 is deeply oversold, historically a zone that precedes relief rallies, but the MACD remains bearish and confirms sellers retain control. A decisive close above $65,933 would strengthen the bull-market case, while a breakdown below $59,122 would invalidate the recovery thesis and expose the lower support band.