Bitcoin Holds $63K on Saylor Buy Signal as Bernstein Defends Thesis, Futures OI Sheds 185K BTC

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin defended the $63,000 level on Monday, extending a roughly 4% Sunday rally that traders attributed to Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor signaling further accumulation of the asset. The price is now pressed against its 200-week simple moving average, a long-term marker that has repeatedly framed major cycle turning points and now serves as the key battleground between buyers and sellers. Saylor's posture carries weight given the firm's history of aggressive purchases. Yet analysts caution that hovering at this moving average mirrors mid-2022 conditions, when downside momentum eased for months before any durable reversal finally materialized.

Despite a slower capital cycle, the long-term store-of-value case for Bitcoin remains intact, according to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. They noted combined inflows from exchange-traded funds and treasury companies near $12 billion so far in 2026, against roughly $60 billion in 2025, with spot Bitcoin ETF products bleeding $2.6 billion over the same window. The team framed the modest outflows as "almost encouraging" in a market fixated on artificial-intelligence trades, arguing that Bitcoin being "boring" this cycle does not erode its core thesis. The asset still trades about 50% below its $126,000 October peak.

The weekend bounce lost momentum after fighting between Israel and Iran resumed, collapsing a two-month truce and pushing crude oil back toward $100. Reported Israeli airstrikes hit infrastructure across central and western Iran, including a petrochemical facility in Isfahan, following a barrage of roughly ten Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at northern Israel. The escalation defied diplomatic pressure from President Trump, who publicly distanced his administration from the offensive. Surging energy benchmarks and softer equities drove a broad rotation out of risk assets, leaving Bitcoin to defend a fragile $60,000 baseline after touching an intraday high near $64,128 during a short squeeze.

Derivatives data underscored how violently leverage was purged during last week's slide. Bitcoin futures open interest collapsed to 716,000 BTC from a record 901,000 BTC reached just four days earlier, erasing roughly 185,000 BTC in notional positioning. The unwind illustrates how brutally the recent crash liquidated crowded longs across venues. There is a constructive read, however: the sharp drop in open interest suggests forced selling from over-leveraged traders has largely cleared, leaving the market structurally lighter. Dealer gamma dynamics clustered around the $60,000 strike continue to shape near-term volatility, even as speculative call buying begins to reassert itself.

Sentiment, meanwhile, sank back into extreme fear. The market sentiment index plummeted to a reading of 8, returning to single digits after a two-month hiatus and failed attempts to hold positive territory. Even so, calm corners of the market sprang to life as Bitcoin stabilized. Audiera's BEAT token surged 78% over 24 hours and Siren's SIREN added 33%, ranking as the two strongest performers among the top 100 by market value. Both are BNB Chain Web3 projects, and the precise catalysts behind the moves remained unclear. The bursts of speculative altcoin activity hinted at returning risk appetite at the margins.

Corporate treasuries have provided the primary counterweight to ETF liquidations, led again by Strategy. Bernstein noted the company raised $7.5 billion through its STRC preferred product in 2026 to fund the acquisition of roughly 100,000 BTC, with its $53 billion Bitcoin position covering the instrument's $1.2 billion annual dividend more than 30 times over. On-chain data cited by the analysts shows 61% of circulating supply has stayed dormant for more than a year. They argue diversified ownership across treasuries, wealth platforms, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds leaves Bitcoin with a healthier market structure than prior retail-driven cycles.

Technically, Bitcoin trades near $63,203 with a 1.2% daily gain, yet the broader structure stays in a downtrend. RSI at 26.54 sits deep in oversold territory, signaling stretched selling that often precedes relief bounces, while the MACD holds a bearish signal that has yet to flip. Immediate resistance stands at $64,221, then $66,703; reclaiming both would strengthen the case for a push toward $71,027. Initial support rests at $61,787, with $59,126 and $52,679 below. A daily close above $64,221 alongside an RSI recovery would favor bulls, whereas a decisive break under $61,787 would invalidate the rebound and reopen lower targets.