Bitcoin Holds $63K as Miner Says Strategy Survives $30K, Trump Ceasefire Fails to Move BTC

Bitcoin News

Jiang Zhuoer, chief executive of mining pool BTC.TOP, argued that Bitcoin could fall as low as $30,000 without forcing Strategy to abandon its accumulation plans. Writing over the weekend, he dismissed a week of sell-off speculation as overblown, noting the company's debt equals roughly 5% of its assets and would climb only to about 10% even at $30,000. With Bitcoin trading near $63,000, he sees little reason for the firm to break the never-sell narrative underpinning its equity story. Critics countered that a prolonged downturn would still pressure the balance sheet over time.

The debate intensified after on-chain analysts flagged roughly 45,000 Bitcoin, worth close to $3 billion, leaving a Fidelity custody wallet between May 28 and June 1. Some inferred that Strategy had quietly distributed coins at an average near $66,000 to meet obligations. The wallet, however, also custodies Fidelity's spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF holdings, making any direct link to Strategy an inference rather than a confirmed transaction. The ambiguity fueled volatility in sentiment even as price action stayed contained, underscoring how custody-level data can drive narratives well ahead of verified disclosures.

Much of the discussion centered on STRC, the preferred shares Strategy issues to raise cash, which pay an 11.5% annual dividend in monthly installments. Selling its oldest and cheapest coins lets the company book accounting profits that fund those payouts, while fresh issuance finances new purchases. As long as buying outpaces selling, Strategy remains a net accumulator. Proponents argue that signaling a willingness to sell actually reassures STRC holders, whose primary fear was a refusal to liquidate that could trigger a dividend default. The structure reframes selling as a feature, not a forced concession.

Macro headlines added another layer this week. President Trump posted about a ceasefire between Iran and Israel on Truth Social, prompting immediate moves across traditional markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% before paring gains, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.9%. Oil, which had carried a war premium for weeks amid fears over a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, calmed sharply as both Tehran and Tel Aviv independently confirmed a halt in offensive strikes. Traders stripped out the embedded conflict risk almost instantly, repricing inflation expectations and rewarding equities and energy markets in tandem.

Bitcoin, by contrast, barely flinched. The asset opened and closed near $62,800, essentially flat, even as stocks and oil reacted to the ceasefire signal. The muted response stands out given Bitcoin's recent sensitivity to geopolitical cues: it had surged from roughly $65,878 to above $82,000 in May as buyers priced it as a hedge against escalation, then surrendered those gains when the truce collapsed. Just days earlier, Trump's "I call the shots" remarks moved Bitcoin around 5%. Monday's far larger headline produced no comparable swing, hinting at fatigue or repositioning among traders.

The decoupling raises questions about how Bitcoin trades during a potential bear market. Skeptics in the Strategy debate warned that a sustained downturn would swell the company's interest burden and eventually compel larger sales regardless of management's intentions. With the token down nearly 10% over the past week following Strategy's first reported sale since 2022, sentiment remains fragile. The lack of follow-through on bullish macro news suggests that crypto-specific flows, custody movements, and corporate treasury dynamics are currently overriding the broader risk-on signals that lifted equities and pressured oil this week.

Technically, Bitcoin trades around $63,162, up 0.77% on the day but still in a confirmed downtrend with a bearish MACD signal. The RSI at 25.8 sits deep in oversold territory, often a precursor to relief bounces but not a confirmed reversal. Immediate support rests at $61,760, with deeper floors at $59,131 and $52,679 if selling resumes. On the upside, reclaiming $64,203 is the first hurdle, followed by $66,611 and $68,192. A daily close above $64,203 with improving momentum would favor a recovery toward the mid-$60,000s, while a break below $61,760 likely invalidates the bullish case and exposes the $59,000 region. Far from the prior all-time high, the structure stays defensive.