Bitcoin Holds Near $60K, Facing Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) is drawing heavy accumulation even as its price grinds toward the $60,000 region, on-chain data shows. Wallets tagged as long-term Bitcoin accumulation addresses have absorbed an unusually large volume of BTC over recent sessions, a flow that stands out against a metric that stayed flat for most of the year. The pattern suggests larger holders treated the slide from roughly $95,000 in January as a buying zone rather than a reason to exit. Reduced sell-side supply can support price over the medium term, though analysts caution that such inflows sometimes reflect custody shifts or OTC transfers rather than fresh conviction buying. Our coverage of Bitcoin tracks these flows live.

The deeper concern is structural: Bitcoin is on course to close a second straight quarter in the red, a sequence recorded only three times in its history. The asset surrendered the $60,000 mark on global venues this week, with one major exchange print near $59,067, down roughly 1.7% on the day. Back-to-back quarterly losses break a powerful seasonal pattern, since the second quarter has historically been among Bitcoin's strongest stretches over the past decade. Our reading is that the failure of that seasonality signals traditional cycle templates have lost their grip on this bear market, leaving price action hostage to macro forces rather than the usual halving-cycle momentum.

Derivatives positioning amplified the slide. On-chain liquidation data shows roughly $139.43 million in forced closures across the digital-asset market over 24 hours, and an outsized 89.18% of that total came from long positions betting on a floor that did not hold. The skew underlines how one-sided leverage had become before the breakdown. When longs dominate liquidations to that degree, the unwind tends to feed on itself, as each forced sale pushes price into the next cluster of stop levels. The cascade left order books visibly thinner and sentiment fragile heading into quarter-end, with bids stepping back rather than defending the round number.

Galaxy Digital chief executive Mike Novogratz pinned a large share of the recent weakness on eroding confidence in Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder. He argued that worries over Strategy's financing model — not just spot price — are bleeding into the broader market, noting its preferred security STRC trades weak when it should sit near $100. Strategy's annual dividend obligation has climbed to about $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut its dividend-coverage runway to roughly 14 months. Novogratz framed the macro backdrop bluntly: a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin. He flagged $59,000 to $60,000 as critical support, with a clean break risking a slide toward $45,000.

For perspective, this downturn has lasted 233 days, ranking as the fourth-longest of Bitcoin's seven cycles since 2014, defined as 30-plus consecutive daily closes below the 200-day moving average. Yet it is also the mildest on record: the maximum drawdown of 51.2% from January 2025's $124,773 all-time high sits far below the 76.7% to 83.6% declines of three prior structural bears. The 200-day moving average now sits near $76,450 against a spot price that recently traded around $62,651, a 22% gap. The cycle low of $60,861 printed on June 7, and reclaiming the 200 DMA could take until at least August on the fastest historical recovery.

The macro picture explains much of the pressure. Global capital has rotated out of crypto and into artificial-intelligence and semiconductor equities, draining liquidity from Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market just as US spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped to net outflows. A hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh and a dollar index at a seven-month high have tightened conditions further. Adding to the unease, the Bank for International Settlements used its annual report to highlight a potential AI-investment bubble, sticky inflation, and deteriorating fiscal health among major economies as key risks to the global outlook. With buyers absent, that confluence has kept Bitcoin pinned near multi-month lows into quarter-end.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $61,031 resistance at 80/100, the strongest overhead level, built on the confluence of a Fibonacci 0.114 retracement, a high-volume node and the R2 pivot, with the $62,831 band close behind at 60/100 from the Ichimoku Kijun, EMA 20 and SMA 20. On the downside, our engine scores the $58,903 support at a STRONG 80/100, anchored by the prior-day low, a bullish engulfing print and the lower Donchian channel. Derivatives read defensive: a near-flat 0.0009% funding rate, $11.8 billion in open interest and a 2.22 long/short ratio (68.9% long) show crowded longs still exposed. With RSI at 33.96, a bearish MACD and a 12/100 Extreme Fear reading, holding $58,903 keeps a bounce toward $61,031 alive; losing it invalidates the thesis and opens $51,387.