Bitcoin Holds Near $64K on Hormuz Deal Optimism

Bitcoin (BTC) held firm around the $64,000 zone, and the broader Bitcoin market showed unusual stability after two days of geopolitical headlines and U.S. policy signals. The token touched $64,000 early in the session, slipped into the $63,000 range, and then regained the upper side as traders treated the $62,000 area as a short-term floor. That level roughly marks the halfway retracement between July's $57,000 low and the subsequent $67,000 rebound, and it absorbed selling after Iran initially denied fresh negotiations. The risk backdrop improved after President Donald Trump signaled a halt to a feared large-scale strike and pointed toward renewed talks. Oil fell, U.S. manufacturing data came in strong, and equity indexes moved higher, helping Bitcoin recover the mid-$63,000 range before another push toward $64,000. In Washington, the market also tracked the Clarity Act, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicating that the chamber could delay a recess to begin debate if a compromise on ethics provisions is reached. The White House had not yet responded to that compromise, leaving the bill's near-term path uncertain. Later, a Qatari official said discussions involving Iran and Oman were advancing, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said publicly that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within days. Those remarks pushed oil lower and lifted major U.S. equity indexes to fresh peaks, while Bitcoin extended its recovery toward the middle of the $64,000 band. Additional reports pointing to possible mine-clearing cooperation and U.S. pressure on Oman for an agreement reinforced the softer energy backdrop. Earlier weakness followed reports that Friday's currency intervention was coordinated, pushing the dollar-yen toward 155 and weighing on Asian equities, but that pressure faded as risk appetite returned. Exchange-traded fund flows also showed signs of stabilizing, while traders braced for U.S. private payrolls and services data that could shape near-term rate expectations.

Despite the macro-friendly backdrop, Bitcoin remained roughly 49% below its October all-time high of $126,000, highlighting a disconnect between digital assets and the broader risk rally. The token traded just above $64,000, up less than 1% on the day and nearly unchanged over seven days, while global equities advanced. MSCI's All Country World Index climbed 0.4% toward another closing record, its Asia Pacific benchmark gained 2.2%, and Australian shares reached a new peak after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at historic highs. The strength was driven largely by renewed enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence-related names, with SK Hynix rising 6.4% after the Seoul open and Nvidia adding more than 2% after hours, even as AMD fell 9% on a soft sales outlook and SpaceX dropped 7.5% on higher projected AI spending. Brent crude lost 1.1% to roughly $78.50 per barrel after reports that Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing a deal to reopen the strait, with an announcement targeted for Wednesday. Treasuries and gold also advanced as traders reduced expectations for further rate hikes. Across major crypto assets, ether slipped to $1,864 and fell 2% for the week, making it the weakest major token, while XRP, dogecoin and tron declined modestly. Solana hovered near $73.60, BNB gained more than 1% to $598, and Hyperliquid's HYPE rose nearly 3% to $56. The pattern of cheaper oil, softer rate expectations and record equities failing to lift crypto for three straight sessions suggests current weakness stems from internal market dynamics rather than external macro conditions. That divergence is notable because a confirmed Hormuz agreement would normally be treated as a macro catalyst for high-beta assets. Instead, the largest altcoin names are behaving as if liquidity remains selective, and a failure to respond to a formal deal could cause traders to reassess whether the range is consolidation or the start of another bear market leg.

A separate security incident added fresh pressure to sentiment: a firmware vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets, traceable to March 2021, has resulted in more than $116 million in stolen funds across multiple waves, with a fourth wave alone moving 388.9 BTC in a single overnight session. Developer James O'Beirne deployed a tripwire wallet using a vulnerable default seed, and it was emptied within an hour, confirming that attackers are actively scanning the weak seed space. Coinkite halted shipments and destroyed remaining inventory built on the affected firmware. Strategy also disclosed its third sale of the year, offloading 1,638 BTC for roughly $105 million, while related wallets transferred an additional 1,030 BTC days later. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $19.6 million in net inflows on Aug. 4, a modest recovery after a $265 million outflow session earlier in the week.

On-chain data revealed a sharp divergence between large-holder accumulation and institutional selling: whale wallets added roughly 40,100 BTC, worth about $2.6 billion, over nine days, while active wallet counts climbed to 712,000, a three-month high, and transactions above $100,000 reached 61,800, the most in five months. Glassnode described the current phase as a "bottom through boredom," with selling pressure decelerating but new demand insufficient to break the range. Separately, updated ETF data showed spot Bitcoin fund net inflows on Aug. 4 revised upward to $170.3 million, with IBIT alone drawing $183.8 million, while revised Coldcard loss estimates now exceed 2,055 BTC, surpassing $130 million.

(as of 22:00 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the immediate $65,409 resistance at 61/100, driven by R1, MACD cross and flip support-to-resistance confluence, while the stronger $66,320 ceiling scores 75/100 from Bollinger Band upper, ATR upper, EMA 100 and Donchian upper signals. On the downside, $63,948 holds 69/100 support from the 20-period EMA, pivot point, high-volume node and Ichimoku Tenkan cluster, with $61,044 at 53/100 backed by the Keltner lower band, Fibonacci 0.114 retracement, another high-volume node and the Supertrend indicator. At the time of writing, derivatives show mild bullish positioning: funding is 0.0016%, open interest is $13.10 billion and the long/short account ratio is 1.20, though the Fear and Greed Index at 27 signals fear. A daily close above $65,409 would open $66,320, while losing $63,948 would invalidate the near-term constructive setup.