Bitcoin Holds Near $65K as Mining Difficulty Drops 10%, Shorts Lose $500M

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin climbed above $65,000, briefly touching roughly $65,860, after President Donald Trump announced a completed peace deal with Iran, leaving the asset up about 2.2% on the day and 4% over the week. The relief move has not erased trader caution. More than $4.8 billion has exited US spot Bitcoin ETF products since May, and the 25-delta options skew has held between -4% and -5%, showing investors are still paying up for downside protection rather than upside. Prediction-market participants remain bearish, with many assigning elevated odds to a slide toward $55,000. The Federal Reserve decision this week looms as the next test.

Traders are now eyeing $69,000 as a near-term target after the US-Iran framework pushed risk assets higher and dragged crude lower. WTI crude fell below $80 per barrel for the first time since mid-April, easing a headwind that had pressured Bitcoin throughout the conflict. The agreement covers a 60-day pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a signing ceremony scheduled in Switzerland on Friday. US equity futures surged in tandem. Large holders have reportedly reversed their selling, establishing what one analyst called a rock-solid floor near $60,000, though incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adds uncertainty to the rally.

On-chain data points to a notable accumulation signal. A bottom indicator that multiplies the share of supply in profit by 30-day volatility flashed for the second time in 2026, printing 0.053 on June 11, its second-highest reading in six months. The same gauge peaked at 0.082 on February 12, when Bitcoin traded near $66,248 and subsequently rallied roughly 24% to about $82,186 by May 10. As the signal fired, the largest whale cohorts lifted their holdings, with two groups together adding close to 11,000 BTC worth around $700 million, suggesting big players view current levels as a cycle low even amid a thinning bear market in volume.

The geopolitical catalyst also reshaped energy and cross-asset flows. The framework, mediated by Pakistan and set for formal signing on June 19, removes the US naval blockade and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global crude transits. WTI dropped nearly 5% to around $80 while Brent slipped below $84, after both benchmarks had spiked above $110 during the conflict. Ethereum, the leading altcoin, advanced to about $1,724 alongside the rebound. Fund-flow data offered further relief: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $316 million in outflows last week, a slower pace that hints forced selling earlier this month has begun to cool.

Not all signals are constructive. A long-running Fibonacci study warns that every prior Bitcoin bear cycle has retraced more than 61.8% of the move from near zero in early 2010 to each bull-market peak. With this cycle topping above $126,000, an all-time high set earlier this year, that 61.8% retracement now sits near $48,215. Bitcoin trading around $64,000 to $66,000 remains well above the threshold, and the pattern has not triggered. Analysts caution the four-cycle sample is small and that a market now dominated by ETFs, institutions and sophisticated derivatives may build an earlier floor than past cycles allowed.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick told clients he believes crypto prices have already marked the cycle low, pegging it near $59,000 for Bitcoin, roughly 53% below the $126,000 high. He is watching three confirmations: continued corporate buying, positive ETF inflows and falling oil. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $85.84 million in net inflows on Friday, while Strategy chief Michael Saylor signaled fresh purchases with a Sunday post reading still adding dots. Strategy disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 in a June 1 SEC filing, offloading 32 BTC, which Saylor defended as necessary to sustain the firm's digital-credit model.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine (as of 11:26 UTC, spot $66,314, up 2.74%) rates the $68,144 resistance at 76/100, driven by the confluence of ATR Upper, Fibo 0.382 and R2, with overhead $66,079 scored 71/100 on Ichimoku Senkou A, R1 and the prior day high. The $64,788 support carries a strong 75/100 from S3, Fibo 0.236 and a bullish pin bar. Derivatives show a near-flat 0.0007% funding rate, $12.6 billion open interest and a long/short ratio of 1.50 (60% long), even as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 20 (Extreme Fear). RSI at 42.2 with a bullish MACD favors recovery; a daily close below $64,788 would expose $61,835 and invalidate the bottom thesis. Reclaiming $68,144 opens the path toward $71,000. A move into Bitcoin DeFi liquidity could amplify either direction.