Bitcoin-Linked Crypto Revenue Falls 38% at Robinhood

Crypto News

Bitcoin (BTC) trading and broader crypto activity at Robinhood weakened in the second quarter, even as the brokerage posted its strongest quarterly results to date. The company’s investor-relations disclosure showed revenue of $1.31 billion, a 32% increase from the same period a year earlier and an all-time-high for the firm. Adjusted earnings per share reached $0.62, well above the $0.42 analysts had penciled in, but the composition of the quarter mattered more for crypto participants. Crypto transaction revenue contributed $100 million, down 38% from a year earlier and smaller than prediction-market event contracts, which generated $156 million. Those event contracts surged roughly 10x, showing that speculative event trading can grow faster than token trading when retail attention shifts. Prediction markets also exceeded equity transaction revenue of $129 million for the first time, while options remained the largest segment at $342 million and other lines added $49 million. The result shows that Robinhood’s retail platform is no longer driven only by digital-asset trading. The company now operates 13 business lines above $100 million in annual revenue, a portfolio that spans equities, options, prediction markets and crypto. The company also pointed to Robinhood Chain expansion as part of its broader financial-infrastructure effort, although the revenue mix made clear that crypto was no longer the main growth engine. That diversification helped offset a second consecutive soft period for crypto, following an even steeper decline in the prior quarter. A portion of the profit included a one-time gain, which requires caution when assessing earnings quality, but the top-line figure still set a record. Management also continued repurchasing shares under a plan authorized earlier in the year, adding a capital-return element to the record quarter. For Bitcoin and the wider altcoin market, the takeaway is that exchange-level crypto revenue can contract even while a platform reaches a new revenue peak.

Robinhood’s stock did not respond to the record quarter as a bullish earnings story. HOOD finished the July 29 session at $89.84, a 3.15% decline, after falling about 14% over five sessions and roughly 20% year to date. The weakness began before the report: a head-and-shoulders pattern that formed from June 9 broke down on July 24, and that breakdown structure remained intact after the numbers. The chart now hinges on $89.87, a level that aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. If that floor holds, the measured target near $76.53, implying about 21% downside from the breakdown area, may not be tested. A reclaim of $93.84 would reopen room toward Wall Street targets, while a decisive recovery would require a move above $108.45, the right shoulder of the pattern. Derivatives positioning reinforces caution. The put-call ratio in open interest stood near 0.66, and the volume-based ratio moved toward 0.60, showing that traders added downside protection around earnings rather than betting on an immediate rebound. Money-flow data offered a smaller counter-signal. Chaikin Money Flow read -0.09 and failed to cross above zero around July 24, indicating institutions were still net sellers. Yet the gauge rose between July 27 and July 28 while price declined, a mild bullish divergence that suggests selling pressure is losing force. Volume since early July has also thinned on down moves, implying retail and institutional sellers may be exhausted. Analyst views remained divided but not bearish: Barclays and Truist kept buy ratings, with Barclays setting a $122 target, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley maintained hold views at $99 and $124. The split between record fundamentals and fragile price action makes the next daily close above or below $89.87 the immediate trigger. For now, the market is treating Robinhood less as a pure crypto proxy and more as a diversified brokerage whose options business can offset weaker altcoin and digital-asset revenue.

COINOTAG’s analysis is that Robinhood’s quarter shows a structural decoupling between crypto revenue and crypto-market leadership. The company’s own earnings release confirms that digital-asset fees can fall while prediction markets and options expand. This matters because Bitcoin (BTC) still dominates COINOTAG-tracked market value at 69.7%, and the COINOTAG Fear and Greed Index reads 28/100, a fear zone, across a tracked universe worth $1,866,371,761,056. In such conditions, retail platforms may monetize volatility through non-crypto products even as altcoin activity cools. The key signal is not the all-time-high revenue alone, but whether Bitcoin-linked demand stabilizes before broader risk appetite recovers.