Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Losses Hit $280M Daily, Highest Since December 2022

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin long-term holders are absorbing their deepest losses in more than two years, with on-chain data showing adjusted realized losses on coins held over 155 days reaching roughly $280 million in a single day — the highest reading since December 2022. The share of long-term holder losses within total realized value jumped from 15% in early February to 43%, a structural pressure point that explains why fresh supply hits the market on every rally attempt. Bitcoin still trades below both its realized market mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200, keeping the network in a deeply undervalued zone. Spot ETF net outflows eased from $193 million to $88.9 million daily on a 30-day average, but monthly flows stayed negative.

Derivatives positioning tells a more constructive story for Bitcoin. Cumulative long liquidation leverage climbed to $3.94 billion, overtaking the $3.17 billion stacked on the short side, a sign traders are adding upside exposure rather than capitulating. Coinglass-style liquidation mapping puts the largest cluster near $60,721, where roughly $1.98 billion in leveraged longs would face forced selling on a break lower — a zone leveraged bulls typically defend. The asset has held above the psychological $60,000 mark for seven straight sessions despite a reported ~$216 million Strategy disposal, while the Fear & Greed reading recovered from 11 to 20 over the week.

American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), the miner chaired by Eric Trump, disclosed via social media that its treasury crossed 8,000 BTC, ranking it 16th among listed corporate holders. The announcement drew a fierce backlash from shareholders, who accuse the executive of pushing retail buyers with repeated “buy the dip” messaging through months of 20%–30% drawdowns. The company's stock has collapsed about 94% from its highs since its Nasdaq reverse merger, and a 15-to-1 reverse split executed last month to preserve the $1 listing minimum was followed by a further 38% slide. Full-year revenue reached $185 million against a net loss near $153 million.

A separate disclosure highlighted how opaque miner balance sheets have become. CleanSpark reported that of its 13,924 BTC held as of June 30, some 1,719 coins — about 12% — were pledged as derivatives collateral or booked as receivables, meaning they do not function as immediately available reserves. Rival Riot Platforms flagged 5,802 of its 15,680 BTC (roughly 37%) as restricted. The distinction matters for liquidity: the industry's weighted-average production cost climbed to about $79,995 per coin in the fourth quarter of 2025, leaving an estimated 15%–20% of global mining rigs unprofitable at current hashprice.

Bitcoin's resilience through renewed US-Iran tensions is reshaping how the market prices geopolitical risk. As fresh American strikes and threats over the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude 1% higher to $78.80 and gold into a fourth straight session of selling near $4,060 an ounce, Bitcoin held the $62,000 level with only a 1.2% wobble — far milder than the 5% shocks such headlines once triggered. Traders increasingly treat Middle East escalation as a rates event rather than a crypto negative, tying price action to short-term Treasury yields. The $60,000 floor is now widely viewed as the decisive line for the next directional move.

Corporate credit stress tied to Bitcoin treasuries is spreading beyond a single issuer, moving preferred-share structures from high-yield products toward genuine credit-risk instruments. Strive, the seventh-largest public BTC holder, disclosed it still holds 505,000 shares of Strategy's STRC preferred stock, whose fair value fell from $44.738 million on June 18 to $37.658 million by June 26 — a $7.08 million drop in eight days. Elsewhere, Japan advanced real-world use cases as a vending-machine pilot for the JPYC yen stablecoin launched in Kyoto, running through September 30, against the backdrop of a payment processor's ¥125.9 billion bankruptcy.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $61,905 support at 73/100 (STRONG), anchored by the confluence of the S1 pivot and Ichimoku Senkou A, while first resistance at $63,787 scores 71/100 (STRONG) on Fibonacci 0.236 and the previous-day high. Our derivatives read shows a modest 0.0056% funding rate, $12.2 billion in open interest and a long/short account ratio of 1.64 (62.1% long) — leaning bullish but crowded. With the Fear & Greed Index at 22 (Extreme Fear), RSI at 48.65 and a bullish MACD against a broader downtrend, a reclaim of $63,787 opens $65,395; a decisive loss of $57,800 support would invalidate the recovery thesis.