Bitcoin Trades Near $64K as Rally Meets Two Waves of Sellers

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back above $65,000 before slipping under the level, leaving a recovery that has yet to prove it can hold. Our reading of the tape is that the bounce ran straight into supply: the coin changed hands around $64,720 at the time of writing, down roughly 0.13% over 24 hours. The move is the latest attempt by Bitcoin to reclaim a psychologically important round number after weeks of grinding price action, and it once again faltered as profit-takers and loss-cutters met the rally head-on rather than chasing it higher.

The rebound had a macro tailwind behind it. Softer-than-expected United States inflation prints reset rate-hike bets: the Consumer Price Index, the headline gauge of consumer inflation, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in June, dragging the annual rate down to 3.5%. That was the steepest monthly decline since April 2020. Cooling price pressure eased fears that the Federal Reserve would be forced into another tightening move, and risk assets initially responded. Yet for Bitcoin, the relief proved short-lived, with the macro boost quickly absorbed by sellers waiting at higher levels rather than translating into a durable breakout above resistance.

Producer-side data reinforced the disinflation story. The Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale prices further up the supply chain, rose 5.5% year over year, undershooting the 6.2% consensus forecast among economists. Coming alongside the softer CPI reading, the miss strengthened the case that inflation momentum is fading across both consumer and producer channels. For traders, the two prints together mattered more than either in isolation: they lowered the probability that the Fed would need to keep leaning against growth, a backdrop that historically favors longer-duration and higher-beta assets, of which crypto remains among the most sensitive.

The recalibrated inflation outlook fed directly into rate expectations. Following the data, the market-implied probability of a July rate increase collapsed to 10.2%, down sharply from 24.6% just a week earlier, according to interest-rate futures pricing. That repricing removed a key overhang that had capped speculative appetite through the spring. A less aggressive Fed path typically loosens financial conditions, and a softer dollar tends to widen the runway for Bitcoin. Even so, the improved odds were not enough to keep BTC above $65,000, underscoring that positioning inside the crypto market — not just the macro backdrop — is steering near-term price.

On-chain data helps explain why the bounce stalled. The rally was met by heavy selling from two distinct cohorts at once. Long-term holders, wallets that have held coins for extended periods, were cutting losses into strength, trimming exposure accumulated near prior cycle highs. Simultaneously, short-term holders who bought close to recent lows were banking gains, locking in profit on the way up. Both groups were selling into the same price recovery, creating a layered wall of supply. That two-sided distribution is a classic feature of an uncertain tape, where neither conviction buyers nor patient holders dominate the flow.

The longer-term picture, however, points to thinning supply. On-chain metrics show the long-term-holder share of realized selling has stopped expanding, and the profit-taking flow that met every 2026 rally has dried up almost entirely. What older wallets sell now, they increasingly sell at a loss rather than into strength — a shift in the realized profit-and-loss mix that historically marks late-stage capitulation rather than distribution. If that read holds, the overhead supply that repeatedly stalled prior advances is finally exhausting itself, even as the immediate rejection at $65,000 keeps the near-term structure fragile and range-bound.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $63,374 support at 86/100, one of the strongest reads on our board, built on the confluence of the S3 pivot, Fibonacci 0.214, the EMA 20 and the Bollinger Band midline; overhead, the $67,154 resistance scores 74/100, anchored by the Keltner upper band and EMA 100. Derivatives look cautiously constructive: funding sits at a mild 0.0033%, open interest holds near $12.38 billion, and the long/short account ratio of 1.53 shows 60.5% of accounts positioned long. Yet the Fear & Greed Index at 25 signals Extreme Fear. RSI at 52 and a bullish MACD favor the bulls above $63,374; a decisive loss of the $61,056 support would invalidate the recovery thesis and reopen the door to a deeper bear market retest, keeping any push toward the all-time high firmly capped for now.