Bitcoin Falls to One-Year Low Near $59K on Deepening Bear-Market Fears

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) slid to its lowest level in roughly a year, briefly trading under $58,000 and leaving the asset well off its all-time high, and one prominent market maker warns the bottom is not yet in. Its research argues that while classic capitulation signals have appeared — mounting unrealized losses among holders and a price pressing against the 200-week moving average — the market still lacks the ingredient that historically ends a bear-market: fresh buying. Persistent spot ETF outflows and weak over-the-counter demand leave few large bids. The desk expects Bitcoin to stay under pressure into September or October before any durable recovery can form.

A second concern is supply. Analysts note that with US spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding capital and Michael Saylor’s Strategy potentially turning into a net seller under its new STRC financing structure, the market is struggling to find sizable new buyers. Bitcoin ground lower through US trading hours, touching levels last seen in September 2024. The worry is that once STRC formally begins operating, it could add fresh selling rather than the steady accumulation the firm became known for. For now, the absence of a marginal buyer of last resort leaves each dip searching for support at ever-lower levels.

US demand looks especially soft. The Coinbase Premium — the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and the global average, widely read as a proxy for American and institutional flows — deteriorated again. On-chain data shows the index fell roughly 15% over 24 hours to around -110, and it has stayed negative since late April. A persistently negative reading signals that US investors are leaning toward selling rather than buying, and that domestic bids have yet to return in size — a clear headwind for any attempt to reclaim higher ground and stabilise the trend.

Some commentators pin the slide on the derivatives market rather than genuine supply and demand. Crypto analyst MartyParty argued on X that roughly 82% of Bitcoin sits in cold storage, meaning price is largely set by the unregulated perpetual-futures market rather than real spot flows. He went further, accusing some centralized exchanges of influencing price through wash trading. The claim is unverified, but it feeds a broader unease that leverage — not organic demand — is steering the current move, a dynamic that tends to amplify swings in both directions when positioning grows one-sided.

Not everyone accepts that framing. Others counter that no matter how much Bitcoin sits dormant in cold wallets, price is ultimately set at the margin by the coins actually changing hands — new buyers versus new sellers, not idle supply. What is harder to dispute is where liquidity has gone. Capital that might once have rotated into Bitcoin and the broader altcoin complex is concentrated in AI-linked assets, starving the market of the inflows that typically fuel a rebound. Should that AI enthusiasm cool, a rotation back into digital assets would be a key signal the selloff is exhausting.

Seasonality offers little comfort either. The market maker’s head of research, Jasper De Maere, noted that crypto has almost never completed a bottom during the summer, when thin volumes make durable long-term accumulation difficult. That points to continued pressure into the autumn, when the macro backdrop will decide whether a recovery can begin. Traders are now watching several variables: the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report, whether Bitcoin can defend long-term technical support, and how much extra supply Strategy’s STRC vehicle ultimately brings to market once it goes live.

Our reading of the tape is cautious. COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $57,753 support at 81/100 (strong), anchored by the confluence of the Donchian Lower band and the S1 pivot; a decisive break there opens the door toward the $50,987 shelf. On the upside, the engine scores $60,724 resistance at 73/100, driven by the ATR Upper band and Ichimoku Tenkan. RSI at 30.26 sits on the edge of oversold while MACD stays bearish. Derivatives show a 2.41 long/short ratio — 70.7% long — with $11.7 billion in open interest and barely positive funding, a crowded long that risks a squeeze. With the Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear), holding $57,753 keeps a relief bounce alive; losing it confirms the downtrend.