Bitcoin Posts First Monthly Gain Since April With 9% July Rise

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) posted its first monthly advance since April, climbing 9.3% in July after starting the month near $58,000, its lowest point of the period. The recovery, however, was accompanied by unusually thin participation. Venue-level data show average daily spot turnover fell to about $2.2 billion, the weakest monthly reading since November 2023, while exchange activity remained far below prior-cycle levels. Binance recorded roughly $35 billion of July spot volume, compared with $246 billion in November 2024, and declines of 85% on Bybit, 67% on OKX and 61% on Coinbase reinforce the demand shortfall. Derivatives offered little offset: open interest on CME contracts stayed near multiyear lows, and perpetual open interest hovered around 300,000 BTC. On-chain data also showed muted coin movement, with 30-day exchange inflows near 60,000 BTC, about three-quarters of the yearly average, and net flows slightly negative at roughly minus 1,300 BTC. U.S. spot ETF demand softened from a $197.4 million inflow in the week through July 10 to outflows later in the month. Seasonality adds another test: August has closed lower in each of the past four years, with an average decline of 7.49%. The rebound therefore looks dependent on a fragile return of buyers rather than a durable bear market reversal, leaving the Bitcoin market's near-term structure vulnerable.

The institutional side of the story remained subdued, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds gathering only $205 million of net inflows in July, the smallest monthly total on record even with two trading sessions remaining. That figure represents a modest improvement from the $2.43 billion withdrawn in May and the $4.52 billion that left in June, but it still points to hesitant allocation rather than a broad institutional re-entry. The monthly ETF figure also underscores how far demand remains from the strong inflow periods that previously drove rallies toward all-time-high territory. Altcoin funds showed uneven strength: Ether products attracted $342.85 million, nearly matching their April result, while XRP funds added $13.61 million and Solana products took in $13.82 million. The contrast helped the Ether-to-Bitcoin pair gain 11% during the month. Macro conditions did little to force positioning, as prices stayed flat after a Federal Reserve hold that markets read as hawkish. Sell-side strategists framed the 200-week moving average near $63,300 as the key line: holding it would make the current calm look constructive, while losing $62,500 could open a move toward the $60,000 liquidation zone. With core inflation and growth data due, the Altcoin and Bitcoin markets may be storing volatility, especially as daily Bollinger bands have compressed to their tightest span since January.

Brokerage research covering July market structure paints a similarly cautious picture, showing that average daily spot volume cooled to about $2.2 billion and was on track for the lowest level since November 2023. The most recent seven-day average was roughly $2.1 billion, down 4% from the week before, while price action stayed compressed after a weekly decline of about 3% to the $63,300 area. Derivatives also lost momentum. CME futures open interest touched its lowest since 2023 and hovered near 100,025 BTC before the July contract expiry, while total futures and perpetual open interest slipped 2.1% to about $32.1 billion, or 508,000 BTC. Annualized futures basis fell toward 5%, and August contracts traded only 0.4% above the July pair, signaling limited appetite for leveraged upside. Options positioning briefly softened, with one-month 25-delta skew reaching 6.28 on July 23, a six-month low, before returning to double digits after a price dip. The report also highlighted Bitcoin derivatives venue BitMEX; the exchange's official announcement said it will close after 11 years. Its market share fell from about 40% in early 2020 to 0.6% in the first half of 2026. At its peak, the platform's insurance fund held more than 36,000 BTC, but it had shrunk to 3,600 BTC by November 2025, underscoring how weak turnover is pressuring smaller exchanges.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames Bitcoin's sideways tape at $64,876 as resistance-led. The first upside barrier, $65,316, scores 67/100 on Flip S→R and Value Area Low; above it, $66,956, scores 80/100 from LVN and EMA 100 confluence. Support at $63,942 scores 71/100, anchored by SMA 50 and Fibo 0.236. Derivatives positioning is mildly long: funding is 0.0065%, open interest totals $12.77 billion, and the long-short account ratio stands at 1.40. Fear and Greed at 28 signals fear, not capitulation. A hold above $63,942 keeps a move toward $66,956 alive; losing that support would expose $61,468 and weaken the bullish thesis.