Bitcoin (BTC) Rate-Hike Odds Fall to 40% After Weak July Jobs

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) remains caught below its main trend gauges after a surprisingly weak U.S. labor report lowered the chance of a September Federal Reserve rate increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the first net loss in the current recovery sequence and far below the 95,000 gain economists expected. June's addition was revised down to 20,000 from 57,000, while May was also cut sharply, leaving the labor picture softer than the headline unemployment rate suggested. Futures-market data compiled by the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September hike dropping to 40% from 55% one day earlier. That macro shift usually supports risk assets, yet Bitcoin has not confirmed a trend change. The largest cryptocurrency traded around $64,938 as of the latest session data, up about 1.06%, but remained beneath both short- and long-term moving averages. Chart watchers describe the setup as a death cross because the 50-day exponential moving average sits below the 200-day measure, keeping the medium-term bias tilted lower. The relative strength index near 54.6 signals neutral momentum rather than a decisive breakout, leaving $65,000 as the immediate line between consolidation and renewed bear market pressure. Prediction-market participants have also stayed cautious, assigning nearly 65% odds that the token revisits $55,000 before any push toward $84,000. Those odds have barely moved over the past week.

The immediate market response was more constructive. Earlier in the session, Bitcoin reached $65,340 on the Bitstamp exchange, its strongest August level, as traders interpreted the payroll miss as a reason for policymakers to refrain from tightening. The S&P 500 opened 0.5% higher, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced just over 1%, showing that digital assets were moving with broader risk appetite. Interest-rate futures tied to the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting shifted from favoring a quarter-point increase to pricing a pause, reflecting a rapid repricing of policy risk. The official payroll statement stressed that May and June revisions removed 103,000 jobs from earlier estimates, underscoring how quickly hiring momentum cooled entering the third quarter. Market desks also noted that recent corporate BTC sales and the Coldcard wallet incident had not produced heavy demand for defensive options positioning. That detail matters because options flows often show whether participants are paying for tail risk or simply adjusting spot exposure. Altcoin markets also held relatively firm after a week of bearish surprises, though gains remained uneven across large-cap tokens. For now, the reaction suggests traders treated weak payrolls as a liquidity-relief signal rather than a recession warning strong enough to offset the benefit of steadier borrowing costs. That leaves macro data in the driver's seat.

Beneath the macro-driven swings, chartists are studying a structure that could turn the current range into a setup. Bitcoin traded near $64,600 earlier in the day, slightly lower over 24 hours, while daily candles show a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern taking shape. The left shoulder formed around $60,000 in early June, the head dropped to roughly $57,700, and the right shoulder found a shallower low near $62,500. In traditional pattern analysis, the measured objective is calculated by projecting the distance between the head and neckline upward from the breakout point. Applied to this structure, that calculation points toward $76,000 if buyers secure a decisive daily close above the $66,800 neckline. The pattern remains unconfirmed until that threshold is cleared, and volume has stayed restrained inside the summer range, suggesting many institutional participants are waiting for a clean breakout before adding risk. A failure to hold the right-shoulder area would weaken the bullish argument, while a slide under $60,000 would invalidate the formation and reopen the path toward the prior $57,700 low. Even if confirmed, the target would not imply a new all-time-high, but it would offer a technical route out of the current compression phase. These boundaries give both bulls and bears clear invalidation points during a low-volume summer tape into the coming sessions.

COINOTAG's own market data frames the move cautiously. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 29/100, a Fear reading, while Bitcoin represents 69.9% of the COINOTAG-tracked market capitalization of $1,857,027,435,155. Lower hike odds may stabilize flows, but sentiment remains defensive until price confirms a durable trend change.