Bitcoin Rebounds to $63K After Sub-$60K Plunge as Strategy Buys 1,550 BTC, Fed Hike Odds Hit 68%

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin clawed back above $63,000 on Monday after a brutal Friday selloff dragged the asset below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, with prices bottoming near $59,227 before dip buyers intervened. The collapse erased roughly $1.6 billion in leveraged positions in a single session, as Ether slid to $1,500 and Solana touched $63.75. Since the October 2025 all-time high, the broader crypto market has shed an estimated $2.5 trillion in value. Three catalysts dominated the rout: hotter-than-expected jobs data reviving rate-hike fears, an AI-driven capital vacuum, and a sudden crack in the long-trusted Strategy accumulation narrative.

Strategy moved to steady that narrative on Monday, disclosing the purchase of 1,550 BTC for roughly $101 million at an average price of $65,332 per coin. The acquisition lifts the firm's treasury to 845,256 BTC, worth around $53.5 billion and equal to more than 4% of Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed the buy via an SEC filing, the company's first purchase since it sold 32 BTC on June 1 to fund a preferred-stock dividend. Strategy also raised its dollar reserves by $100 million to $1 billion, funding both moves through $181 million in common stock sales.

Despite the rebound, traders remain skeptical that the cycle low is in. Several widely followed analysts argue the ultimate bear-market bottom is still months away, projecting a relief bounce through June followed by fresh lows in the third or fourth quarter. One trader flagged the 59,100 weekly low as the line that must hold to keep a path open toward a 72,500 imbalance. Another cautioned that Bitcoin's weekly close beneath the 200-week simple moving average historically precedes a final capitulation. Sentiment readings, meanwhile, have collapsed to some of their lowest levels on record as conviction drains from the market.

On-chain data offers a more constructive counterpoint to the bearish chart structure. The market value-to-realized value Z-Score, a metric that has marked every major cycle bottom when it touches or dips below zero, now sits near 0.24, just above the historically significant accumulation zone. That green band coincided with the lows of 2011, 2014, 2018 and the 2022 trough that preceded a multi-year rally. The reading suggests Bitcoin's market price is converging toward its realized fair value after the recent crash. Some long-term holder profitability metrics still hint at residual selling, but the broader signal points to deeply compressed valuations rarely seen outside of capitulation phases.

Security concerns resurfaced as a court in Qingdao, China sentenced a man to 10 years and nine months in prison for stealing 107 Bitcoin by memorizing a victim's recovery phrase. The perpetrator, asked to help cash out 117 BTC in 2023, committed 11 of the 12 seed words to memory and reconstructed the final word to drain the wallet, later realizing more than $97,000 in proceeds. Prosecutors classified Bitcoin as property eligible for theft under criminal law despite China's trading bans. The case underscores that cold wallet security threats are frequently human rather than technical, with social engineering exploiting trusted-helper scenarios during setup.

Macro headwinds tightened further as bond markets priced a 68% probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike following a blowout May jobs report that added 172,000 positions against an 85,000 forecast. The data lands squarely on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in three weeks ago on a promise of tighter inflation discipline. Warsh now faces a defining choice at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting between holding rates and signaling structural reform or endorsing a hike to prove his hawkish credentials. With CPI and PPI inflation prints due this week, risk assets including Bitcoin remain hostage to the rate trajectory.

Technically, BTC trades at $63,020, up 1.73% over 24 hours yet still locked in a downtrend with a bearish MACD signal. The RSI at 26.24 sits firmly in oversold territory, often a precursor to relief bounces but not a confirmed reversal. Immediate resistance stands at $64,221, followed by $66,703 and $71,023, while support rests at $61,754, then $59,117 and a deeper $52,679. A reclaim of $64,221 with sustained volume would open the bullish case toward the upper imbalance; a daily close below $59,117 invalidates the recovery thesis and exposes the lower support shelf. Watch CPI and the FOMC outcome as the decisive macro triggers.