Ali Martinez: Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims 1,130-Day SMA in Cycle-Bottom Signal

Bitcoin Flips 1,130-Day SMA After Summer Dip

Bitcoin has reclaimed its 1,130-day simple moving average, a long-term trend line that analyst Ali Martinez says has marked turning points in each of the previous four market cycles. The cryptocurrency was trading near $79,000 on Aug. 24, up more than 2% on the day, after spending roughly 80 days below the average earlier this summer. Martinez argues the June drawdown may ultimately be recorded as the cycle bottom rather than the start of a deeper decline. Sustained closes above the average could turn the former resistance zone into long-term support, while losing it again would revive the bear-market case. The move follows a breakout on Aug. 20, when BTC climbed back above $74,000 and recrossed the line after nearly three months beneath it.

Bitcoin Touches $80K as Short Liquidation Risk Builds

Spot data showed Bitcoin briefly touching $80,000 during the Wall Street open for the first time since May 15, extending a rally that has lifted the asset about 25% month-to-date. The push above the round number coincided with more than $220 million in crypto short liquidations over 24 hours, a sign that leveraged bearish positioning was being forced out. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital argues that a weekly close at the highs starts “the real test,” because bear-market relief rallies can fade without sustained follow-through. Bitcoin also registered its first weekly close above the 50-week exponential moving average at $77,251 since November 2025. A pullback would likely find initial support from a band of bid liquidity centered near $76,700.

Options Market Shows Bullish Positioning

Derivatives activity has become increasingly lopsided as Bitcoin approaches the $80,000 threshold. Futures open interest across exchanges is nearing $58 billion, up from roughly $49 billion a few days earlier, according to futures open-interest data, with Binance holding the largest share. Options positioning points the same way: call options represent 59.37% of total Bitcoin options open interest, and the largest Deribit positions include $100,000 and $120,000 call strikes. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted record demand for BlackRock's IBIT call options, with 1.58 million contracts traded on Wednesday and volume above one million contracts on each of the next two sessions. The call-put skew posted its sharpest three-day move in at least two years, reinforcing the shift toward bullish positioning.

Economist Warns of QE Risks

The rally also drew a cautionary response from economist Peter Schiff, who warned on social media platform X that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond-buyback plan could set the stage for large-scale quantitative easing. Schiff described the strategy as reckless, arguing it would shorten the average maturity of U.S. debt and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to raise rates without fueling a surge in interest costs and the deficit. His comments arrived as several high-market-cap altcoins pulled back from multi-month highs, leaving Bitcoin to lead the session's recovery. Analysts at Bitfinex, meanwhile, argue the move needs genuine spot demand rather than short covering to reach $86,500. They view a weekly close above roughly $73,500 as the first confirmation signal, with a drop below $64,500 suggesting the bounce was driven by forced buying.

ETF Inflows in Focus After Short Squeeze

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to provide the next test of demand. The funds absorbed roughly $1.9 billion in the week ending Aug. 21, including about $606 million on Aug. 20, after five consecutive daily inflow sessions. Analysts at Bitget Wallet and Nansen argue that forced short covering accounted for much of the initial advance, and that liquidation-driven buying is finite because each event closes an existing position instead of creating durable cash-market demand. A sustained break above $80,000 would therefore require fresh spot inflows once the squeeze fades. One analyst described the rally as “real but very fast,” with funding rates and open-interest growth needing to stay moderate. A confirmed breakout could bring $85,000 to $90,000 into view, while rejection would probably trigger another correction before the next attempt.

Overbought RSI Adds Risk at $80K

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine places immediate resistance at $79,618 with a score of 68/100, driven by a confluence of R2, stochastic overbought and RSI overbought signals. The strongest nearby support sits at $75,249 at 69/100, supported by the Fibonacci 0.214 level and volume nodes. Spot is $79,031, up 2.27% in 24 hours, but RSI at 82.21 has moved deeply into overbought territory. Derivatives offer a cautionary counterpoint: funding rates are slightly negative at -0.0004%, open interest stands at $15.49 billion, and the long/short account ratio is balanced at 1.02. The Fear & Greed Index at 73 points to greed. A sustained hold above $78,568 could allow a retest of $79,618; a break below $75,249 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis.