Bitcoin Reclaims $60,000 After Warsh Signals Eased Inflation Risks

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $60,000 on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased and struck an open-minded tone on artificial intelligence, reviving appetite for risk assets. Speaking at a central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh — a longtime inflation hawk making his first international appearance as chair — declined to label the AI spending boom inflationary and flagged softer price pressures, a tone traders judged less hawkish than his June debut. The remarks matter because US consumer prices rose 4.2% in the year to May, the fastest since 2023, forcing the Fed to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in June. Gold rallied alongside Bitcoin.

The recovery came off a punishing local low. BTC printed an intraday trough of $57,779 — its weakest level since September 2024 — before rebounding roughly 2.8% back toward $60,000, still around 52% beneath the record near $126,000 set in October 2025. The turn followed softer US data: private employers added just 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May, while the ISM manufacturing index eased to 53.3 and its prices-paid gauge tumbled to 73 from 82.1. The bounce interrupts a brutal stretch in which US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed a record $4.5 billion over June, according to on-chain and fund-flow data.

Derivatives positioning still leans defensive. Options-market data shows growing wagers that Bitcoin could slide toward $50,000, with put options priced above calls across every expiry as traders hedge deeper downside. Demand for September-dated $50,000 puts has risen sharply on institutional trading desks, and aggregate open interest climbed to roughly 768,000 BTC as the market retested $57,700 before recovering near $58,800. That skew signals investors are positioning for further weakness rather than a rally, raising the odds — in the view of the analysts tracking it — that BTC probes below $50,000 before the third quarter closes, even as spot buyers quietly re-emerge.

Some analysts warn the drawdown may not be finished. A widely followed exchange research note argues that, judged against prior cycles, Bitcoin could sag toward the $40,000 region before a durable floor forms. Past bear markets saw peak-to-trough declines of at least 70% — around 78% in 2022 and 86% in 2018 — versus the current 53.9% retreat from the $126,000 high. A slide to $40,000 would deepen the total drawdown to roughly 68%. The report ties its cautious view to weakening spot demand, short-term holder selling and ETF outflows, noting the recent break of $61,500 support toward $58,136 was driven by spot exits rather than leverage flushes.

The chart structure reinforces the caution. Bitcoin remains locked in a descending trend after losing several major support zones, with the 200-day moving average near $80,000 and the 100-day near $74,000 now sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance. Our reading of the daily tape puts immediate downside support at $55,000, with a deeper demand pocket near $52,000 should sellers force another leg lower. To repair the broader structure, BTC would first need to reclaim $60,000 decisively, then clear the $66,000 to $68,000 supply zone that has capped every recovery attempt during the current decline.

Longer-horizon forecasts remain far more constructive. One widely circulated AI-generated model frames the present slump as a setup rather than a breakdown, projecting a climb into the $120,000 to $150,000 range by the end of 2026, with an $80,000 to $100,000 floor if catalysts arrive slowly. The base case sees the next major leg beginning around November as macro liquidity improves and capital rotates back into risk. It leans on accelerating institutional adoption through ETFs and corporate treasuries, continued global accumulation, and a friendlier US regulatory backdrop — while flagging stalled policy progress and a tighter-for-longer Fed as the primary risks to that thesis.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $57,803 support at 75/100 (strong), the firmest level on the board, driven by the confluence of the lower Bollinger Band and ATR floor, while the overhead $61,072 resistance scores 66/100 on Ichimoku Tenkan, an HVN cluster and the R1 pivot. RSI at 37.32 sits near oversold as MACD flips to a bullish cross beneath a still-intact downtrend. Derivatives are cautiously long — funding holds at 0.0071%, open interest near $11.9 billion, and a 1.88 long/short ratio (65.3% long) — yet a Fear & Greed reading of 11 signals Extreme Fear. A clean break above $61,072 opens $67,278; a daily close below $57,803 invalidates the bounce and exposes $50,987.