Bitcoin Reclaims $63K in Five-Session Rebound Toward Resistance

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 level and is now pressing against its first major resistance after climbing more than 6% over the past week. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $63,500 as buyers regained control, though it remains below its 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages, a sign the recovery has yet to confirm a trend reversal. The nearest ceiling sits at roughly $64,004; a decisive close above it would open the path toward the 50-day EMA near $65,763, then the 100-day EMA at $69,469 and the 200-day EMA at $75,427. Momentum improved, with RSI just above the neutral line and MACD turning constructive. Follow the move on our Bitcoin hub.

Attention now turns to a dense macro calendar, with the market treating this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the record of the Fed's rate-setting discussions, as the pivotal catalyst. The release is the first under new chair Kevin Warsh, and investors want to gauge how hawkish the internal debate has become after the Fed held rates steady amid persistent energy-driven inflation. The week also brings services PMI data, ADP private payrolls and weekly jobless claims. Labor signals are softening: full-time employment fell by 514,000 in June, the steepest drop since December 2024. US equity market capitalization topped $80 trillion, a fresh all-time high, keeping risk appetite intact.

Beneath the rebound, derivatives positioning tells a more cautious story. Exchange data show that while retail traders lean long, large accounts remain defensive. On Binance, the retail long/short ratio sat at 1.44 and whale accounts at 1.58, yet smart-money sentiment was classified as bearish. The divergence was sharper on OKX, where whale account ratios fell to 0.85 and actual whale positioning to 0.79, both short-heavy. Across a five-minute window, Bitcoin's long/short ratio slipped to 0.417, with shorts accounting for 70.57% of open positions. Our reading of the order flow: individual buyers are driving the bounce while institutional desks stay skeptical of its durability.

Risk appetite has steadily improved as geopolitical tension and inflation fears eased. Bitcoin posted five consecutive winning sessions for a gain of roughly 7% and held firmly above $63,000. Fed chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the constructive tone, citing a durable ceasefire and improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as reasons inflation risk had receded. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 17 a week ago to 29, lifting the market out of extreme fear into fear. Technically, price is approaching the 50-day EMA near $65,766; a break there would test the prior high at $67,292 and the psychological $70,000 barrier, while a loss of $60,000 would deepen the correction.

The rebound triggered a wave of forced liquidations that punished bearish bets and threatened a fresh leg of the bear market thesis. Over 24 hours, derivatives liquidations totaled $161.64 million across 54,793 traders, with short positions accounting for $110.73 million, or about 68.5% of the total. Bitcoin led with $57.92 million liquidated, as short liquidations of $48.82 million dwarfed the $9.1 million in longs by more than fivefold. Ethereum followed with $39.78 million, and together the two assets made up roughly 60% of the market total. The cascade, a classic short squeeze in which rising prices force bearish traders to buy back, suggests near-term selling pressure has been meaningfully cleared.

Altcoins amplified the recovery, with Pump.fun (PUMP) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) leading gains and lifting broader sentiment. PUMP extended its advance past its 50-day EMA at $0.001570 and pushed toward the 100-day EMA at $0.001728, holding the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its recent decline. HYPE traded above $70, testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, with pivot targets identified at $77.12 and $89.18 on a confirmed breakout. The rotation into higher-beta names signals returning risk appetite, though such leadership can reverse quickly if Bitcoin stalls at resistance. For now, strength in smaller tokens reinforces the constructive short-term backdrop.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $63,753 resistance at 81/100, driven by a confluence of the previous daily close, the 0.236 Fibonacci level and the R1 pivot, while the $62,945 support scores an equal 81/100 on the S1 pivot, point of control and Ichimoku Kijun. As of the latest read, spot trades at $63,328 with RSI at 50.3 and a bullish MACD, though the broader trend remains down. Derivatives data show a modestly positive funding rate of 0.0035%, open interest of $12.44 billion and a long/short account ratio of 1.61, crowded longs that raise squeeze risk. With the Fear & Greed Index at 24, a close above $63,753 targets $67,369; a break below $62,945 invalidates the bullish setup.