Bitcoin Reclaims $64K After 10% Rebound From Bear-Market Low

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) has clawed back the $60,000 level, rebounding roughly 10% from last week's bear-market low near $57,700 to trade close to $64,000. The recovery has lifted sentiment across the market, yet on-chain analysts caution that the move looks like a bear-market bounce rather than the start of a fresh uptrend. Our reading of the demand and valuation metrics suggests improving conditions, but the broader structure for Bitcoin remains fragile. For now, the rebound has restored the $60,000 zone as a key support band — a shift traders had waited weeks to see confirmed after a punishing stretch of selling pressure that pushed Bitcoin to its recent floor.

Much of the optimism ties to July's seasonal record. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has closed higher in most Julys, and the effect has proven especially pronounced during bear markets. In 2018 and 2022 — both weak trending years — BTC still gained roughly 20% and 17% respectively during the month. Research head Julio Moreno noted that because Bitcoin entered July fresh off a swing low, historical precedent raises the odds of further short-term upside. He framed the seasonality as a tailwind rather than a guarantee, cautioning that a favorable calendar alone cannot override the market's still-weak underlying trend or confirm a durable reversal.

Demand indicators are also stabilizing. A combined spot-and-perpetual gauge tracking 30-day total Bitcoin demand has recovered from its sharpest contraction since 2022, when it shed roughly 650,000 BTC in early June, and now sits near neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned marginally positive, while the pace of spot-market shrinkage has slowed to its lowest since mid-May. On-chain data shows US buying firming as well: the Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of American spot appetite, has climbed from deeply negative territory back to -0.062, signaling that selling pressure on US exchanges has eased and institutional bids are steadying.

Valuation readings add nuance. In early June, traders' unrealized profit margin plunged below -24%, far under the -12% threshold analysts use to flag an undervalued market. Such extreme lows have historically coincided with capitulation by short-term holders and often mark local bottoms; the metric has since begun repairing alongside price. Even so, the composite Bull Score Index — which blends on-chain, market and valuation signals — sits at just 20, deep in bearish territory and well below the 60 mark analysts consider the threshold for a sustainable advance. Until that gauge improves materially, the rebound is best read as corrective, not a trend reversal.

The bounce unfolded against an easing macro backdrop. Crypto rebounded after a sharp prior-day drop as oil prices and US Treasury yields cooled, tempering fears that renewed Middle East tensions would keep risk assets under pressure. Investors have largely looked past short-term geopolitical noise, anticipating de-escalation. The recovery was not confined to Bitcoin: major altcoins including Ethereum, XRP and Solana advanced in tandem, a sign that risk appetite broadened modestly. Still, the muted breadth suggests capital rotated cautiously, with traders favoring large-cap exposure while the wider altcoin complex waits for clearer direction.

Network activity backs the price action. Trading volume expanded to about $27.2 billion over 24 hours, up nearly 4.7%, showing the rebound drew genuine participation rather than thin-liquidity drift. Active wallet addresses rose to roughly 478,640, indicating stronger on-chain engagement alongside the recovery. Net unrealized profit-loss (NUPL), a metric gauging aggregate holder profitability, ticked up to 0.1571, a modest improvement that still points to limited conviction. Exchange reserves held near 2.71 million BTC, and net inflows stayed slightly positive at around 1,956 BTC — a reminder that latent sell-side supply remains, even as inflow momentum cooled from the prior day.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $63,224 support at 80/100 — our strongest floor — anchored by the confluence of the S1 pivot and the prior-day close, with $60,656 (61/100, EMA 20 and point of control) beneath it. On the upside, the engine scores the $67,369 resistance at 70/100, driven by the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement and the 50-period EMA. Derivatives positioning reads cautiously constructive: funding sits at 0.0066%, open interest near $12.45 billion, and a long/short ratio of 1.45 (59.3% long). With RSI at 53 and a bullish MACD but Fear & Greed pinned at 23 (Extreme Fear), a hold above $63,224 keeps the bullish case alive; a break below $60,656 invalidates the thesis.