Bitcoin Reclaims $64K After June CPI Cools to 3.5%

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin surged after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June consumer price inflation cooled to 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus and down sharply from May’s 4.2% reading. Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $63,500 within minutes of the release, lifting the wider Bitcoin market as traders reassessed the odds of tighter Fed policy. The print landed just as risk sentiment had been battered by renewed Middle East tension, so the softer-than-expected data delivered an immediate relief rally. The largest cryptocurrency had traded near $62,000 only hours earlier, having briefly slipped toward the lower end of its July range before the report arrived.

The details underscored broad-based disinflation rather than a one-off dip. Headline CPI fell 0.4% on the month, the steepest monthly decline since April 2020 and far below the 0.1% drop economists expected. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, was flat at 0.0% month-over-month against a 0.2% forecast, while the annual core rate eased to 2.6% from 2.9%. The flat core reading was the standout surprise, signaling that underlying price pressures — not just energy costs — are moderating. That distinction matters, because a purely energy-driven slowdown would have left the Federal Reserve less room to declare victory on inflation.

Traditional markets moved in lockstep. The U.S. dollar index slipped roughly 30 points to 100.69, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.4%, and Treasury yields fell as the 10-year dropped to 4.604% and the 2-year shed 10 basis points to 4.18%. Gold rallied in tandem, climbing from about $4,030 to $4,100 within minutes of the release. The synchronized move across currencies, equities and bonds reflected a market rapidly repricing the path of interest rates, with risk assets — including altcoins — catching a bid as the inflation scare briefly faded from view.

Attention immediately shifted to the Federal Reserve. Ahead of the data, CME FedWatch pricing implied roughly a 51.9% probability that the Fed would raise rates at its September meeting, with July hike odds near 39%. The cooler print prompted traders to trim those bets, reviving expectations that policymakers could hold — or even ease — rather than tighten further. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee shortly after the release, and any hawkish tone from him could quickly temper the rally, keeping the rate-path debate firmly in focus for crypto positioning.

The disinflation was driven largely by energy: the June energy index fell 5.7% month-over-month, dragging the headline number lower. That tailwind now looks fragile. Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel after President Trump reinstated a U.S. naval blockade on Iran and imposed a 20% charge on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed tension around the waterway, through which a large share of global oil flows, threatens to push fuel costs back up and complicate the inflation outlook — potentially reversing the very trend that fueled Bitcoin’s rebound and testing whether the rally can hold once the initial reaction settles.

Beneath the rally, spot demand had been softening. Fund-flow data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $424.7 million in net outflows on July 13, led by $245.6 million from Fidelity’s FBTC and $185.5 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, reversing the prior session’s $90.4 million inflow. Before the CPI release, Bitcoin had stalled near $62,500, repeatedly rejected at the $63,100 resistance tied to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of its May-to-June decline. A daily close above that zone would put the $64,000–$64,700 band back in play and ease near-term bear market concerns.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $62,861 support at a maximum 100/100, driven by the confluence of a Fibonacci 0.114 retracement, a high-volume node and the lower ATR band — the line that must hold to keep the recovery intact. Overhead, the engine scores the $64,696 resistance at 87/100 on a cluster of the recent swing high, the upper Bollinger Band and Donchian channel; a decisive break opens the $69,289 level (69/100). Derivatives lean cautiously long: perp funding sits at a mildly positive 0.0052%, open interest near $12.47 billion, and a 1.59 long/short ratio (61.4% long). Yet a Fear & Greed reading of 22 signals Extreme Fear, and a daily close below $62,861 would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose $59,130.