Bitcoin Supply in Loss Approaching Bear Levels

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the profitable and loss-making amounts in Bitcoin supply are approaching bear market levels. Currently, approximately 11.2 million BTC are in profitable positions, while the loss-making BTC amount has reached 8.2 million. At the lowest point of the previous bear market, profitable BTC was 9 million, and loss-making was 10.6 million. Glassnode data also confirms that the loss-making supply has reached levels not seen since the end of 2022. This situation indicates a market valuation similar to the undervaluation in previous bear conditions.

Bitcoin in profit and loss at bear market lows. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Loss-Making Supply Comparison

Bitrue Research Leader Andri Fauzan Adziima states that the data shows increasing market stress but is far from real capitulation levels; in 2022, loss-making supply was above 50%. BTC has declined 52% from its peak in this cycle, less than the 77-84% losses in previous bear markets. These ratios can also be examined on our BTC detailed analysis pages.

DXY has strengthened since late January. Source: TradingView

Macro Factors: Strong DXY and Weak CNY

Bitcoin writer Timothy Peterson stated that the strong US dollar index (DXY) and weak Chinese yuan are hindering recovery, with DXY rising 5% in the last two months. These factors are increasing pressure on BTC's futures market.

Current BTC Technical Indicators

Currently, BTC price is at 66,576.50 USD level, 24-hour change +0.03%. RSI at 42.59 is in the neutral zone, overall trend is downward and Supertrend gives a bear signal. EMA 20: Resistance above 68,432.83 USD. Strong supports: S1 60,000 USD (72/100 score), S2 64,281 USD (71/100). Resistances: R1 68,167 USD (69/100), R2 74,412 USD.

• Support Distance: S1 -9.83%, S2 -3.39%
• Resistance Distance: R1 +2.45%, R2 +11.83%

Market Undervaluation Signals

The increase in loss-making supply gives an undervaluation signal similar to previous bear lows. As investors approach capitulation, technical supports will play a critical role.