Bitcoin Tests $61,300 Floor as ETFs Bleed $4.4B, Half of Supply Sits Underwater

Bitcoin News

Standard Chartered's digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick told clients the worst of the current sell-off may be over, arguing the Bitcoin low is "almost in" despite a punishing week that dragged BTC down roughly 14% in seven sessions and more than 40% year-on-year. Kendrick pointed to resilient spot ETF holdings, which slid only from 682,000 to 674,000 BTC, as evidence that the institutional bid never capitulated. He also forecast Strategy will counter its recent 32 BTC sale with an aggressive 320 to 3,200 BTC buyback, projecting a year-end target of $100,000 if the structural setup holds.

On-chain readings reinforce the late-cycle thesis. Bitcoin supply held at an unrealized loss has crossed 10 million coins, eclipsing supply in profit for the first time this cycle as price probed $61,300. With circulating supply near 20 million, more than half of all coins are now underwater. Historically the inversion has only appeared during deep bear-market conditions, marking lows in 2015, 2019, the 2020 Covid flush, and 2022. The 200-week moving average at $61,300 acted as the immediate floor, with the realized price near $54,000 looming as the next major demand zone.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said long-term holders have finally joined the distribution wave, offloading roughly $2.4 billion in BTC after sitting idle from February through April. Notably, 26% of coins sold during the past thirty days were originally acquired above $90,000, a top-buyer capitulation pattern Engel calls a signature of late-stage downturns. Overall demand, combining speculative and spot flows, is contracting at a 232,000 BTC monthly clip. Trader Scott Melker flagged an oversold weekly RSI consistent with prior cyclical bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, though no analyst is calling an outright reversal yet.

The brief flush toward $60,000 triggered more than $617 million in long liquidations, part of $737 million in total BTC futures wipeouts over 24 hours. Price snapped back 5.52% to roughly $64,690 after reports that Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire, providing a temporary relief catalyst. Traders are split: some see room for a recovery toward the $69,000-$70,000 zone after the leverage flush, while bear-flag breakdown geometry on the weekly chart still keeps a $50,000-$52,000 downside scenario alive should BTC fail to reclaim the broken trend line.

Polymarket's UMA dispute layer upheld a controversial "No" outcome on the market asking whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin by May 31, despite the company's own 8-K disclosing the 32 BTC sale occurred between May 26 and 31. About 98.6% of voting power backed the "No" resolution in the final review, with platform rules stating that confirmation outside the market's time frame does not qualify. The June contract resolved "Yes" since the filing became public on June 1. Galaxy Research and several large traders criticized the outcome, with social campaigns under the "PolyScam" hashtag spreading.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States extended their outflow streak to thirteen consecutive sessions, with another $396.6 million leaving on Wednesday and a cumulative $4.37 billion drained since mid-May. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed the bulk at $342.3 million, while Fidelity's FBTC shed $54.3 million. Ether, Solana, and XRP funds joined the redemption wave, collectively losing $71 million on the day, leaving Hyperliquid's spot HYPE products as the only major altcoin ETF category still attracting net inflows. Total bitcoin exchange-traded fund assets have dropped from $104.3 billion to $82.8 billion in three weeks.

BTC trades near $62,468 after a sharp 7.09% intraday drawdown, with the broader trend now decisively sideways-to-bearish as market cap holds near $1.25 trillion on $42.2 billion in daily volume. The 200-week moving average around $61,300 marks the immediate must-hold support; a clean break opens the realized price at $54,000 as the next demand magnet. To the upside, reclaiming $66,000 would neutralize the bear-flag breakdown and shift focus to $69,000-$70,000. The bullish thesis hinges on a confirmed Strategy buyback and an end to the thirteen-session ETF outflow streak; sustained spot fund redemptions or a weekly close below $60,000 would invalidate the late-cycle bottom narrative.