Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Calls Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom, Sees Halving Rally in 1-2 Years

Armstrong Calls the Bottom

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes the worst of the drawdown is over. Speaking on Bloomberg Television on Thursday, the chief executive of the largest US crypto exchange said he thinks the Bitcoin market has already printed its cycle low and that prices should start climbing over the next one to two years as the next Bitcoin halving approaches in 2028. His call landed while BTC consolidated near $78,000, down 1.7% over 24 hours and roughly 38% below the 2025 all-time high of $126,000 — a slide most traders would grade as a small bear market in its own right. Armstrong's reasoning is straightforward: in his view the correction has done its work, and what remains is a waiting window before cyclical forces re-engage. He framed the upcoming halving as that catalyst, echoing the 17-year pattern in which new highs have typically arrived 12 to 24 months after each reward cut. The interview also ranged beyond the flagship asset: stablecoin payment volume on Coinbase's Base network grew 700% year over year, he said, and he expects the stablecoin market could reach $3 trillion by 2030 — the backdrop for the exchange's four growth pillars of payments, tokenization, prediction markets and agentic finance. Readers tracking where this cycle sits against historical valuation bands can also consult our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide for cycle context.

The on-chain record gives Armstrong's thesis partial support. A weekly Glassnode research report published Wednesday shows Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 23% across the 21 trading sessions through September 9, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 barely moved. More telling is the selling gauge: the seven-day Sell-Side Risk Ratio has fallen to about 7 basis points per day, less than half of the August peak near 16 basis points. In the $83,000–$86,000 resistance band where price has stalled, the pool of willing sellers has shrunk by roughly 55% compared with August — measurable confirmation that overhead pressure is thinning, even if the $78,000 floor still needs several weeks to prove itself.

Binance Reserves Hit Two-Year High

A second data thread complicates the bullish read. Binance's Bitcoin holdings have climbed to their highest level in two years, adding roughly 77,000 BTC since late April to stand above 693,000 BTC — about 30% of all BTC held on major exchanges. Rising exchange balances are classically treated as a sell-side overhang, yet analytics firm Santiment argues this build-up is not a clean bearish signal, and the composition explains why. Binance's user-protection fund, SAFU, announced a $1 billion allocation plan that includes buying about 15,000 BTC — purchases that land directly on exchange wallets without any retail intent to sell. A separate Coldcard hardware wallet incident pushed some holders to relocate coins from self-custody into exchange custody, a custody transfer that inflates balances just the same. Santiment's aggregate numbers reinforce the skepticism: centralized exchange holdings rose about 45,000 BTC, roughly 3%, between May 11 and September 8, while price swung far more violently — from about $81,700 in May to a June 30 low of $58,562, then back to around $79,000 by early September. The peak-to-trough change in balances over that stretch was only about 54,000 BTC, roughly 4% of total holdings. Even the textbook signals failed this summer: balances fell about 33,000 BTC between June 12 and July 28, a historically bullish backdrop, yet price sank into the June 30 low, and the mid-August refill to about 1.332 million BTC — an 84% reversal of the outflow — was followed by recovery rather than decline. There is also demand the metric cannot see: spot ETF issuers typically source coins through whale-sized OTC deals with miners and large holders, bypassing exchange wallets entirely, so strong institutional demand can coexist with flat balances. Related reading: Bitcoin long liquidations reached $112 million after the hot August CPI print. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

$86K Reclaim Decides the Call

Our reading is that both threads now hinge on one question: whether supply returning to liquid venues converts into actual selling. The primary document anchoring this analysis, Glassnode's weekly on-chain report, confirms seller risk has halved from August — evidence that leans toward Armstrong's bottoming case — while the 693,000 BTC parked on Binance is the standing counterweight. Confirmation, in our view, requires a sustained move above $86,000; a break below $75,000 would force a rethink of the bottomed-out narrative, whatever long-term HODL conviction suggests.