Copper Heads for Steepest Weekly Drop Since May on Dollar Strength

LME Futures Down Over 2% This Week

Copper is on course for its steepest weekly decline since May, a slide that began in the same week Deutsche Bank forecast a rally of roughly 50% for copper. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange have given up more than 2% this week, and the benchmark contract closed Thursday at $14,243.50 a ton, down 1.16% on the day. The contract had traded near $14,478 earlier in the week, slipping 1% in Monday morning trade while zinc and aluminum also eased. Three forces drove the retreat. Oil gains tied to the Iran conflict have raised energy costs across the production chain, and power-intensive smelting and refining become harder to justify when demand is uncertain. Chinese data supplied a second headwind. Industrial profits in the world's largest copper consumer rose 4.2% year on year in August, slowing from 11% growth in July and marking the weakest reading since profits fell last November. The dollar added a third layer of pressure. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, has gained 0.77% so far this week and stood near 101.97 on Friday. A firmer greenback raises the cost of dollar-priced raw materials for overseas buyers and typically slows physical procurement. Relief may arrive from the demand side. Chinese buyers return once the National Day holiday ends on October 7, and their first week of restocking will show whether August's profit slowdown has dented consumption or only the headline figure.

Deutsche Bank's $22,050 Target

The bullish case rests on supply rather than demand. Deutsche Bank's research desk set a price target of $22,050 a ton for the second quarter of 2027, and strategist Daniel Ghali described current conditions as a “historic scramble for metal”. In his framing, buyers are competing for tonnage increasingly committed to state reserves rather than available for delivery. The bank estimates China holds 2.05 million tons of the metal in strategic reserves, supply that sits outside routine commercial circulation. Tariff threats from Washington have pulled additional tonnage into American warehouses, a stockpile Deutsche Bank expects to reach 1.3 million tons by the end of the year. Together, the bank calculates, those two holdings could lock up 71% of global above-ground inventories, the refined and unrefined metal physically available worldwide, by the close of 2026. BMO Capital Markets has joined the upgrade cycle, lifting its copper forecast for 2030 to about $18,000 a ton, a revision mining executive Robert Friedland welcomed in a post on X. Thursday's close left the metal roughly $7,800 below the Deutsche Bank target, an implied upside of about 55%. The gap between that call and this week's selling frames the October question: whether physical scarcity can override a softening demand tape.

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$6.47 Support Carries the Weight

COINOTAG data shows Copper trading at $6.57, down 0.29% over the past 24 hours, inside a $6.53–$6.62 range. The daily trend remains a downtrend, with the RSI at 41.7 and the MACD signal bearish. COINOTAG's composite scoring rates the $6.47 support at 87/100, where the Fibonacci 0.500 level and a Supertrend line converge, and the $6.40 shelf at 87/100 as well. Overhead, the $6.58 resistance carries a 95/100 score, anchored by the pivot point and the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement. Positioning stays light: the perpetual funding rate sits at 0.0102% and open interest near $7.56 million. A daily close above $6.58 would confirm the rebound the bank targets imply; losing $6.47 opens the path toward $6.40.