CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Jumps to 80

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Hits 80

CryptoQuant's Bull Score—a composite of ten on-chain and market metrics—jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week, the fastest reversal in a year, signaling Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the initial phase of a new bull market. The analytics firm's official post shows that eight of the ten sub-indicators now flash bullish, making the score the most bullish since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $124,000. This comes as Bitcoin rallied 24% since August 17, reaching an intraday high of $81,272 on Binance before settling around $79,000—its strongest weekly close since 2024. The rally was driven by two macro catalysts: the US Treasury's plan to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9, and market speculation that Washington may directly purchase Bitcoin following President Trump's hint. However, the shift becomes 'officially' confirmed only if Bitcoin closes above its 365-day moving average, currently near $83,000. CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, emphasized that all metrics point to the early stage of a new bull market, but the price must decisively cross that average for confirmation.

The underlying demand picture has strengthened dramatically according to CryptoQuant's analysis. Apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, while spot and futures demand are growing together for the first time since early October 2025. This synchronized growth underpins the bullish regime switch. The firm's composite index now stands at its most bullish level since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin was above $124,000. Yet the $83,000 level remains the key hurdle. A weekly close above the 365-day moving average is required to officially confirm the new bull market. Moreno noted that the data looks constructive but incomplete, suggesting the market is in the initial phase of a bull cycle. He added that the price still has to cross above the 365-day MA for the bull market to be 'officially' confirmed.

Overheating Signals Emerge

Despite the bullish momentum, CryptoQuant warns that short-term overheating risks are building. Trader unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025—a level that historically preceded a 30% pullback when it hit 19% in early May. Short-term holder whales have been taking profits aggressively, realizing approximately $1.2 billion between August 20 and 22, including a record $614 million on August 20 alone, when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000. Exchange inflows for Bitcoin have also surged to around 53,000 BTC, their highest since June, signaling increasing supply hitting trading platforms—a pattern that often precedes selling pressure. Meanwhile, broader market positioning remains bullish, with asset managers holding nearly $375 billion in long S&P 500 futures, near record highs. The same report highlights that Bitcoin's strongest weekly close since 2024 may attract further institutional interest, but the rising inflow could deliver a short-term correction.

$83K Confirmation Test Ahead

The juxtaposition of record bullish scores with overheating metrics places Bitcoin at a pivotal juncture. Our reading of the on-chain data is that the market is in the early stage of a new bull cycle, but confirmation requires a decisive weekly close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger highlighted the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next critical level; a break above would reinforce the cycle-low thesis and open the path toward $100,000 and beyond, potentially challenging the all-time high. For now, the weight of evidence supports a constructive medium-term outlook, though short-term volatility is likely as profit-taking accelerates. The current setup mirrors the pattern seen in early May, where a 19% profit margin preceded a 30% drop, but the structural shift in demand and institutional positioning suggests a more durable recovery.