Ethereum Flashes First Monthly Buy Signal Since March 2025

Ethereum News

Ethereum (ETH) has printed a rare monthly buy signal, a technical event that has historically preceded major recoveries, even as ETF outflows keep the longer-term picture cautious. Our reading of the tape shows the Ethereum altcoin up roughly 8.05% over the past week and about 4.9% in 24 hours, with on-chain and derivatives data pointing to renewed short-term buying appetite. The monthly-timeframe signal is uncommon and carries weight, but current data suggests a confirmed long-term bottom is not yet established. For now, the move looks like the early phase of a possible cyclical turn rather than a settled trend reversal.

The catalyst behind the optimism is the TD Sequential indicator, which just generated a fresh buy signal on Ethereum’s monthly chart. Analyst Ali Martinez flagged the setup as the first monthly buy signal since March 2025, arguing it may mark a larger structural bottom rather than a fleeting bounce. TD Sequential, a momentum-exhaustion tool that counts price bars to identify trend fatigue, has a notable track record here. Martinez emphasized that a signal on the highest timeframe is materially different from the short-term noise that has dominated recent price action, suggesting macro-scale selling pressure on ETH may finally be starting to fade.

Sentiment, however, remains fragile. On-chain flow data shows Ethereum spot ETFs have bled a cumulative $358.3 million since June 17, 2026, a run of redemptions that undercuts the bullish technical read. Persistent outflows signal that institutional allocators are still de-risking rather than accumulating on weakness. This tension — a constructive monthly signal set against steady ETF withdrawals — is the defining feature of the current setup. It is why our desk treats the buy signal as a condition to watch rather than a confirmed floor, since a genuine cyclical bottom typically needs the passive-fund bid to stabilize before it holds.

Futures positioning is where the near-term buying is most visible. Derivatives data shows Ethereum’s perpetual taker buy-sell ratio has climbed back above 1, with its seven-day moving average also pushing above that threshold. The taker buy-sell ratio measures whether market orders are hitting the ask or the bid; a reading above 1 means aggressive buyers are in control. The signal confirms the recent bounce is not purely a spot-driven move but is being reinforced by leveraged demand. Analysts caution, though, that this metric alone does not validate a durable uptrend, and its persistence is one of the key variables to monitor.

Open interest adds another layer to the short-squeeze thesis. Derivatives open-interest data shows the total value of Ethereum futures contracts has ticked modestly higher alongside the more aggressive buying. Rising open interest paired with dominant buy-side pressure can force short sellers to cover, amplifying upside in a squeeze. But there is a clear caveat: if open interest rolls over and declines, it would suggest the rally was driven by shorts closing out rather than fresh demand entering. That distinction matters for durability, and a falling open-interest print would weaken the case that new capital is underpinning the advance.

The historical case for the signal is what gives it credibility. Prior TD Sequential prints have preceded outsized moves: a sell signal in September 2021 was followed by a roughly 78% decline, a buy signal in September 2022 preceded a 235% rally, and a March 2025 buy signal came ahead of a gain near 182%. In 2026, Ethereum lost two major support zones at $3,200 and $2,000, and with heavy short positioning clustered near the $1,500 area, the conditions for a squeeze are in place. Even so, ETH’s path still hinges on Bitcoin, macro risk appetite, and ETF flows — a bear-market backdrop that no single indicator can override.

Our own reading via COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the immediate battle. The engine rates the $1,732 resistance at 78/100, driven by the confluence of Fibo 0.236, the prior day high, and R1, with $1,781 (64/100, Swing High and EMA 50) as the next hurdle. On the downside, support sits at $1,680 (65/100, LVN 1 and Ichimoku Kijun) and $1,615 (67/100, Fibo 0.114 and Ichimoku Senkou A). Derivatives skew bullish — funding at 0.0061%, open interest of $6.64 billion, and a long/short ratio of 1.88 (65.3% long) — yet the Fear & Greed Index at 21 signals Extreme Fear. RSI at 52 and a bullish MACD favor a push through $1,732; a close below $1,615 invalidates the thesis.