Glassnode Cuts Bitcoin (BTC) Fed Hike Odds to 22% Before October 28 FOMC

Fed Patience and Cooler Inflation

Bitcoin (BTC) price sits near $84,845 on Saturday, little changed since the newest market reading and about 1% lower across the past 24 hours, but the macro weight pressing on the asset has lightened fast. Market-implied odds that the Federal Reserve will lift its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points at the October 28 FOMC meeting fell from 66% to 22% in a single week, according to estimates from analytics firm Glassnode. Glassnode derives the number by comparing federal funds futures prices with the effective federal funds rate: the estimate stood at 66% on September 28, had dropped to 22% by the afternoon of October 2, and at one point in the same window printed as high as 68.1%. Across that stretch, the largest proof of work asset by market value gained about 1%. A week ago, odds above 60% framed October as a tightening risk for the wider Bitcoin (BTC) market; the repricing to 22% takes that overhang off the table, at least on paper. Two Fed speakers did much of the persuading. New York Fed President John Williams said in a September 29 speech that there was time to gather more information before any urgent move, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson made the same point on October 1, saying policy judgments could take longer than earlier assumed. The data pointed the same way. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 30 that core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, ran at 3.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month in August, still above the 2% target but cooling, while hiring had clearly lost pace. For a market priced off liquidity expectations, a 44-point swing in hike odds inside five sessions is the kind of input that reorders positioning, and futures desks acted well before the week's biggest data release.

Shorts Bore the Week's Liquidations

The September jobs report flipped the futures market before and after the print. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on October 2 that nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 in September and unemployment held at 4.2%, with July and August hiring revised down by a combined 60,000. Glassnode cited a market expectation of 84,000 ahead of the release, so the shortfall was wide. Liquidation data shows the squeeze ran one way into the number: roughly 60% of the week's futures liquidations were short positions, and the largest single event came at 1:20 a.m. Korea time on October 2, when a cluster of short bets at crypto whale scale, worth $50 million, was wiped out in ten minutes. After the report landed, the flow reversed, with the price pressing lower for a stretch and liquidations taking out $11 million in long positions against $2 million in shorts. Open interest told the same story in two acts, building by $2.1 billion across the 24 hours before the print and then shedding $1.5 billion once it was out. In percentage terms the weekly move looks modest, but with books this crowded a 1% drift was enough to force both sides out of their positions within hours. This was a leveraged futures week, not a spot ETF flow story, and the churn sits apart from holders who simply HODL through macro swings. Supply is thin as well: our earlier reporting on Bitcoin exchange reserves puts the level at 2.68 million Bitcoin (BTC), a three-year low, so each liquidation wave moves price with less inventory to absorb it. For levels around the current range, our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the immediate support and resistance bands. Glassnode itself counsels restraint on causation, noting the weekly gain in Bitcoin alone does not prove the drop in rate odds drove it, and that the immediate reaction after the odds fell was small or short-lived. Attention now moves to the September CPI print, due October 14, which will either confirm the cooling trend or reopen the hike debate.

October 14 CPI Sets the Next Test

COINOTAG's aggregate market data reads a market leaning constructive, not euphoric: the Fear and Greed Index sits at 67, greed territory, Bitcoin holds a 67.8% share of our tracked universe, and tracked capitalization stands near $2.51 trillion. Our earlier year-end outlook from analyst Killa pegged Bitcoin (BTC) rangebound below $97,000, and the October 14 CPI print now tests that range.