Gold Drops Below 200-Day Average as Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $1.72B, IBIT Hits Record Outflow

Bitcoin News

Gold has slipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, dropping beneath $4,300 per ounce and tipping into a bear market. The metal has now shed more than 20% from the record high near $5,600 reached in January, unwinding part of a rally that saw prices climb almost 200% from below $2,000 over two years. That advance was powered by the so-called debasement trade, the wager that heavy government spending and loose policy would erode fiat purchasing power. A break below the long-term average is widely read as a sign that bullish momentum has faded, raising fresh questions about safe-haven demand.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their heaviest weekly bleed since February 2025, shedding roughly $1.72 billion in net outflows over the past five sessions. The funds posted withdrawals on nearly every trading day, interrupted only by a modest $3 million inflow on Thursday. The exodus extends a negative streak that began in May, when the products lost about $2.43 billion across the month. Analysts attribute the rush for the exits primarily to macroeconomic headlines rather than crypto-specific catalysts, with a resilient U.S. labor market reshaping expectations for monetary policy. The data underscores how institutional flows have turned defensive amid a broad risk-off rotation.

BlackRock's IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin fund by assets, absorbed the bulk of the damage, logging around $1.34 billion in withdrawals — its worst single week since the product debuted in January 2024. The scale of the redemption is notable because IBIT had been the steady anchor of institutional demand through much of the past two years, frequently offsetting outflows from rival funds. Its reversal suggests even committed allocators trimmed exposure as Treasury yields climbed. With the flagship vehicle now leading the retreat, the broader complex has lost its strongest source of consistent buy-side support, leaving spot demand thinner than it has been in months.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which tracks how many ounces of gold a single coin can buy, climbed 3% over 24 hours to 14.72 ounces as Bitcoin recovered toward $63,000 while bullion stumbled. Even so, the ratio sits roughly 70% below its December 2024 peak near 41 ounces, a reminder of how far Bitcoin has lagged gold over the cycle. Last month the same ratio was rejected at its 200-day average, a rejection that preceded Bitcoin's slide under $60,000. It now holds above February lows, offering bulls a slim sign of relative resilience as the debasement narrative rotates between the two assets.

The macro backdrop has turned decisively against risk assets after a stronger-than-expected May payrolls report pointed to a resilient labor market. Markets responded by pricing in a 25 basis point Federal Reserve hike in December, which would lift the federal funds rate to a 3.75% to 4.00% range and effectively erase near-term rate-cut hopes. Rising Treasury yields have made interest-bearing bonds more attractive relative to non-yielding Bitcoin, while the U.S. Dollar Index has pushed back above 100. A firmer dollar tightens global financial conditions, drains liquidity and raises the cost of dollar-denominated assets for overseas buyers — a familiar headwind for crypto.

The risk-off wave rippled well beyond crypto, hammering Asian equity benchmarks that had ridden a tech and AI-driven surge. South Korea's Kospi closed Monday down 8.29%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.85% and Taiwan's TAIEX dropped 3.48%, underscoring how tightly digital assets now move with global growth sentiment. Researchers expect ETF flows to remain pressured through early June before stabilizing or turning modestly positive later in the month, citing favorable June seasonality and the prospect that fear has already bottomed. Any macro relief, they argue, could spark relief inflows — but for now allocators appear content to wait on the sidelines.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin trades near $63,249 after a 1.35% daily gain, yet the broader structure remains a downtrend. The relative strength index sits at 26.54, deep in oversold territory and hinting at a possible relief bounce, though the MACD still flashes a bearish signal. Immediate support rests at $61,787, with deeper floors at $59,126 and $52,679. Overhead, sellers cluster at $64,220, followed by $66,703 and $71,027. A daily close above $64,220 would strengthen the recovery case, while a breakdown beneath $61,787 likely invalidates the bounce and exposes the $59,000 region.