Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Hit $120, Rattling Bitcoin (BTC) Markets

Brent Nears $100 on Supply Fears

Oil is charging toward the $100 mark as the Iran–US confrontation widens, and the spill-over into risk assets — including Bitcoin (BTC) — is becoming the macro story traders cannot ignore. Brent futures were quoted at $97.34 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday, up $0.34 or 0.35% on the day, after touching their highest level since July 24 in the prior session. WTI crude climbed harder, adding $1.15 or 1.26% to $92.63 per barrel. The bid reflects a swelling geopolitical risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a large share of global crude flows. Over the weekend, US forces struck three Iranian tankers, one of them near Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export hub, according to US Central Command. Iran's Revolutionary Guard had earlier attacked American warships operating in the region, and Tehran has publicly warned of retaliation for further US strikes, explicitly naming American oil and gas facilities as potential targets. With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight after days of reciprocal attacks, analysts warn that a prolonged standoff could constrain Persian Gulf supply well into 2027.

Goldman Sachs Lifts Oil Forecasts

Investment bank Goldman Sachs is now the loudest voice on the bull side. Daan Struyven, the bank's co-head of global commodities research, said Monday that a $120 per barrel print is possible if attacks on maritime shipping broaden and intensify — and the warning was not new, as the bank first flagged the $120 scenario back in July, months before the current price spike. Goldman has also lifted its official forecasts by $5 across the board: December 2026 Brent is now seen at $85 per barrel and WTI at $80, while 2027 projections were raised to $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, reflecting an assumption that Middle East shipping disruption persists through next year. The escalation has been driven from the top. President Donald Trump has abandoned negotiations with Tehran in favor of military strikes, sanctions and a blockade halting Iranian imports and exports, dismissing the earlier agreement as something that "isn't worth the paper it's written on." Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view for six months, leaving the war council in the hands of the country's security establishment.

Gulf Exclusion Zone on the Table

The pressure is now showing up in physical market data. Figures from oil-market research indicate that inventories outside China have fallen sharply, with reserves down more than 400 million barrels since the war began — a drawdown commodity funds are treating as a tipping point, adding to the volatility whipsawing Wall Street. Diesel has already surged to record highs, trading more than $100 per barrel above US crude, which analysts read as confirmation the crunch has arrived rather than approaching. A Monday strike also hit Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan, extending the conflict beyond Iranian waters. Tehran's response is taking shape: Mohsen Rezaei, who heads Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Sunday the country needs a new strategy for the blockade, the negotiations and the war itself, floating an exclusion zone spanning the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that would push Iranian restrictions beyond the strait. Separately, Iran and Oman are negotiating a temporary shipping route, reviving corridor talks that briefly cooled prices last month — though whether Washington would accept the arrangement remains an open question. Analysts at conflict-focused think tanks assess that Tehran likely seeks calibrated escalation, not all-out war, and caution that miscalculation, not intent, is now the biggest risk of a wider conflict. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Bitcoin (BTC) Macro Lens

COINOTAG's own aggregate data shows crypto risk appetite holding for now: BTC trades near $79,000, commands 68.2% of our tracked market, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 69 (Greed), and total tracked capitalization stands at $2.33 trillion. If the broader commodity complex — from crude to palladium — keeps climbing, the oil shock becomes the key macro variable, with ETF flows the first place stress would surface.